But before I get to that, a couple other items: The word from Pakistan (via telephone) is now that there may be no elections. Free and fair elections would produce an angry, empowered,
PPP-led government,perhaps allied with
Nawaz Sharif, that would be likely to confront the military. If the
PPP,
PML-N, and their allies controlled 75% of the seats, they could impeach the president. Rigged elections would not be accepted in the current mood and could lead to confrontations in the street. The solution: Postpone the elections for a year, while replacing the caretaker government with a government of national unity including the
PPP,
PML-N, and other major parties, with a significant role
for the Islamist MMA alliance. The army would act as the guarantor of this agreement and therefore would continue to exercise hegemony.
Rasul Bakhsh Rais has sent his excellent article,
"Pakistan's Elections: Troubled Legacy."Also: excellent
article on Benazir Bhutto by
Mahnaz Ispahani in Slate.
Delayed elections are the latest effort by the Musharraf government to limit the power of civilian political parties in Pakistan. In this context, the lessons of Benazir Bhutto's life and her ghastly death must be a wake-up call to the Bush administration and certainly to its successor: Accepting a garrison state, however disguised, over a legitimately elected civilian government, is an acknowledgment of terror's emerging triumph in Pakistan. It has always been a short-term, tactical, and doomed solution to the long-term, incendiary problem of security of governance in a nuclear-armed state. The lesson of Benazir Bhutto is that without a long-term and significant investment in civilian political institutions, especially political parties, Pakistan, and with it the "global war on terror," will be lost. The task is frustrating, requires a significant financial commitment, and is not without risks, but the potential rewards are far greater than a continuing alliance with President Pervez Musharraf.
Finish it
here.
To the main theme:
This week I received a query from someone writing an article for a magazine:
To what extent should popular support of the Taliban/militants in the FATA and NWFP be understood simply as an expression of Pathan solidarity? And to the extent that that's the case, do the locals perceive the Pakistani army operations as a Punjabi assault on their territory?
The idea that Taliban are
Pashtuns fighting against foreign invaders is a common one. It is the official position of the Government of Pakistan. When I was in Pakistan in November, one of my
Pashtun nationalist friends asked, "If Taliban are
Pashtuns fighting against foreigners, who are the foreigners in Swat?"
This week I received a copy of a letter dated December 29, 2007, written by Dr.
Abid Ali Shah, a
Pashtun from
Kurram Agency, to Ali
Mohammed Jan
Orakzai, a
Pashtun ex-general also from
Kurram Agency, who was at that time Governor of the Northwest Frontier Province. Since that time Governor
Orakzai has
resigned.
Orakzai originated the policy of seeking negotiated truces with the Pakistan Taliban in the tribal agencies and reportedly opposed plans for the use of force there in the wake of
Benazir Bhutto's assassination.
Here is what Dr. Shah had to say (
facsimile of letter here):
Your Excellency,
With due respect I just remind that today is the 44th day of clashes and unrest in Kurram Agency. . . . Your Excellency knows the number of killed, injured, suffered, and displaced. The over all views is misery, blood shed and anarchy.
There are sick, elder, women and innocent children in need of immediate attention. There are families starving and if you look from top of Parachinar till lower end at Chappary gate, each house or family has suffered in one or other way. Every body is not fighting but in fact the whole zone is under the anarchy of known wanted militants.
Your Excellency just imagines, the respectable commander Kurram militia was requested to intervene but he proudly answered that, I do not want my jawans [soldiers] to be killed. I ask your Excellency, if the national security is under threat, is the soldier has right to say that I don’t want to be killed? Who is then responsible to implement Govt writ?
Your Excellency, this is very interesting that security forces have vacated their positions for militants and each person is fighting for his own sect. If this becomes the trend, then what will be the end result and who will do justice?
Your Excellency, this is undeniable fact that all wanted militants from Waziristan, Uzbeks and outlawed Lashkar e jahangwi are encamped in lower Kurram and fighting so called jehad. Why they have such free and easy access and no one is in position to tackle them?
I hope and request your Excellency to act immediately to implement Govt writ and restore Peace in the beautiful valley.
While the populations of Upper and Lower
Kurram are
Pashtun, the
Aurakzai tribe of lower
Kurram is Sunni, while the
Turi tribe of upper
Kurram is
Shi'a, as presumably is Dr.
Abid Ali Shah. Dr. Shah claims that the militants in Lower
Kurram are
Pashtun (from
Waziristan),
Uzbeks (from Uzbekistan), and
Punjabis (from
Jhang, home of the
Deobandi extremist group
Lashkar-i
Jhangvi). He does not see them as expressions of his ethnic identity. Instead he asks the Governor (also a
Pashtun) to restore the authority of the Government.
As a result of these clashes, according to
UNHCR, about 6,000 Pakistani
Pashtuns, mostly women and children from
Kurram Agency have
fled to Afghanistan in the past week.
Pashtuns are fleeing the Pakistani Taliban to seek refuge in the most insecure parts of Afghanistan.
Perhaps this is an exception, since these
Pashtuns are
Shi'a, unlike the majority. But elsewhere in the Federally Administered Tribal Agencies:
Gunmen in Pakistan have shot dead eight pro-government tribal leaders in the troubled South Waziristan region on Afghanistan's border, officials say. . . .
Officials say they suspect the attackers to be Uzbek militants, who are opposed to Mullah Nazir. Although a Taleban commander, Mullah Nazir recently fought foreign militants with the backing of Pakistani government troops.
That is the official story: Uzbek militants affiliated with
al-
Qaida killed former Taliban
Pashtun elders who sided with the government. Another story circulating is that the pro-government elders were assassinated by the Pakistani Taliban themselves, who then blamed
Uzbeks. In neither case is Islamic militancy an expression of
Pashtun identity.
Taliban are not an expression of
Pashtun identity or
Pashtun or Afghan nationalism, though some people are fighting the foreign troops in Afghanistan with such motives. The Taliban make effective use of
Pashtun tribalism and cross-border ties. Al-
Qaida has even exploited the tribal code by portraying Bin Laden and his companions as persecuted Muslims seeking refuge (
nanawati in
Pashto), who must be protected. But the Pakistani government and the British Indian government before them also used
Pashtun tribalism for political purposes. The Taliban use transnational commerce or ethnic ties as they serve their goals; but those goals are not ethnic or nationalist.
Pashtun nationalists see the Taliban as a threat to, not an expression of,
Pashtun identity.
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