EMBRACING THE OPPOSITION

BY PHILIP J CUNNINGHAM

A powerful regime, facing a rare moment of vulnerability, is all of a sudden interested in reform and willing to talk. It invites its arch-enemies to the negotiating table. But once the crowds are gone, what guarantee remains that the police state will not regroup and retrench and strike back with a vengeance?

Egyptian Vice President Omar Suleiman met with members of the opposition over the weekend. What remains unclear is if the Mubarak regime is sincerely extending an open hand of peace to the opposition, or trying to draw them in close enough so they can be slapped or lured into a trap. Is the inclusion of the Muslim Brotherhood a heartfelt bid to hear all sides or a plan to sow division in a protest that to date has been notable for being leaderless, secular, spontaneous and youthful?

Given the low esteem with which the Muslim Brotherhood is viewed in Israel, Europe and the US, extending an olive branch to the banned, radical opposition might seem paradoxical at first. But it is sometimes easier for entrenched power to deal with its arch-enemy, the enemy that it knows, and not only knows, but probably needs, as an existential doppelganger. On a certain functional level it may be easier for a ruthless power to deal with, if not respect, another ruthless, tightly organized entity, rather than deal with a random mass of peaceful moderates without a hierarchical political organization.

Certainly in other places, at other times, this paradoxical embrace of the opposite can be seen in effect. After Hiroshima and Nagasaki, the US found it easier to work with Japan’s old wartime elite than the communists, pacifists and trade unionists who opposed Tokyo’s war on Asia. In recent decades, Beijing’s rulers have found it easier to engage the Communist Party of China’s arch-enemy represented by the KMT party on Taiwan, rather than deal respectfully with rag-tag individuals such as Liu Xiaobo, and many thousands of others, who demonstrated at Tiananmen Square in 1989.

Thus, what appears at first glance a gesture of inclusion on the part of the Egyptian regime might in fact be a bid to exclude the moderate core demonstrators and keep the focus on mutually antagonistic extremes instead.


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President Suleiman's Inaugural Speech

General Michel Suleiman, Lebanon's new President, delivered a concise inaugural speech today, May 25. Listening to his words on al-Jazeera, I was struck by several elements in the speech:
He emphasized the need to connect with Lebanon's expatriate community, which includes many Christians. He spoke of the rights of this group, in contrast to those who were given citizenship in the 1990s without deserving it. This was a direct reference to citizenship decrees signed by the late Rafiq al-Hariri as Prime Minister. Al-Hariri extended citizenship to tens of thousands of people, many of them Sunni Muslims.
He insisted that Lebanon must renew its national dialogue and he underlined the importance of the Constitution.
His remarks about the Hezbollah-led "resistance" were measured, and he underlined that the resistance must not be used internally. He noted that the resistance won widespread national support in 2000, when Israel unilaterally withdrew its occupation forces and the South was liberated.
He also underlined that the Shiba' farms were still occupied, thereby noting a rationale for a continuing role by the resistance.
He referred to the sons of Lebanon who were still prisoners, which might equally apply to those held by Israel or Syria.
He spoke at comparative length about relations with Syria. He insisted on relations based on mutual respect. He said we should put aside past differences and build a relationship that includes mutual diplomatic relations (Syria still has not embassy in Beirut).
He noted the Palestine issue and emphasized that no one should use Palestine as a pretext. He recalled that the State will not allow terrorism, a reference to the Nahr al-Bared fighting last summer.
He stated tat Lebanon supports the Arab League initiative vis-a-vis an Arab-Israeli peace.
Referring the opposition incursion into West Beirut, he reminded his audience that the army needs to maintain a balanced position.
The U.S. was only represented in the chamber by a Congressional delegation led by Congressman Nick Rahall, a Lebanese-American. I was struck that Suleiman did not mention the U.S. at all. [Were it not for U.S. obstruction I believe the crisis in Lebanon would have been long ago broken, and on terms decidedly more favorable to the U.S., but I will develop that further later.]
Qatar, which shepherded the Doha negotiations, was honored.
In all, Suleiman was impressive, and one may sense that there was a collective sigh of relief in Lebanon as Suleiman took office.

A final point, Lebanese governments have used operated on the norm of consensus decision-making. Keep this in mind as you weigh whether the existing government is a departure from standard practice. Read more on this article...