Friday, July 25, 2008

Rubin: Schweich, ICG, etc. -- Assume the Existence of a State in Afghanistan

The buzz about Afghanistan (outside of Afghanistan) has focused on Thomas Schweich's New York Times Magazine article, Is Afghanistan a Narco-State? This article contains the startling revelation that corrupt Afghan officials protect the drug trade, and that neither President Karzai nor the U.S. Department of Defense believes that direct confrontation with some of the most powerful people in Afghanistan while we are already losing the struggle with the Taliban is a good idea.

Before I proceed, I would like to stipulate that I know and like Tom Schweich. He came into his job as coordinator for counter-narcotics and rule of law in Afghanistan with virtually no background on the subject and read into his brief very quickly and impressively. He is very smart, and he works harder than I do. Unfortunately, he has no idea what Afghanistan is.

(For a detailed analysis of the drug economy in Afghanistan, counter-narcotics policy, and the fallacies of arguments like Schweich's see the report I co-authored with Jake Sherman.)

(Another point: drugs is by far the largest industry in the Afghan economy, probably accounting for a quarter to a third of GDP. It is not a "deviant" activity in the sociological sense. As a political scientist, I don't know of any government in the world that does not have relations with the owners of its country's largest industry and biggest employer. There was a very good essay on this general problem, not focusing on Afghanistan, by a Hungarian World Bank economist. I'll post the link as soon as I can find it.)

I'm going to criticize the Bush administration later in this post (no fainting please), but the basic error Tom makes is not limited to the Bush administration, Republicans, people on the right, or Americans. Samina Ahmed of the International Crisis Group and many others (for example in my own human rights community, if I have not yet been excommunicated) make the same mistake, which we might call the Can Opener Assumption.

According to a story I heard in graduate school, a chemist, a physicist, and an economist were stranded on a desert island where their only provisions were canned food. How would they eat? The chemist tried to analyze the composition of the metal and searched for materials that would rapidly corrode it. The physicist sought to create a lens out of palm leaves and sea water to concentrate the sun's energy enough to pierce the metal. All failed. Finally, they turned to the economist to ask his advice.

The economist examined the can. After reflection he said: "In principal the problem is very simple. First, assume the existence of a can opener."

In this case, the solution is: assume the existence of a state.

Tom summarizes President Karzai's view as:
"[Mr Karzai] perceives that there are certain people he cannot crack down on and that it is better to tolerate a certain level of corruption than to take an aggressive stand and lose power."
I imagine that is a fair statement of President Karzai's view. He has decided not to lose power trying to do things that might fail disastrously. Tom never says that Karzai is wrong about this, so I wonder what his objection is. Maybe such a grim analysis is contrary to his moral principles.

I happen to think that the President of Afghanistan does not have to be that weak, and there is more he could do, though not the way Tom recommends. But Tom tells us a few things he does not comment on, and he refers to a few things he does not say explicitly, that might explain some of President Karzai's problems.

I'm going to make this short, because there is nothing new here. The Bush administration responded to 9/11 by arming and funding every commander they could find to fight the Taliban, regardless of criminal past or involvement in drug trafficking. Then they refused to get involved in "nation building" activity and instead got other "lead nations" to be responsible for various security issues with insufficient funding and capacity, including counter-narcotics. Then, every time that President Karzai tried to remove one of the U.S.-funded commanders from a position, Donald Rumsfeld would warn him against it and say the US would not back him if there was a problem.

Then the Bush administration decided narcotics in Afghanistan was a problem, but since they didn't want to move against the power holders, they decided to attack the poor -- at least they are consistent in their domestic and foreign policy: eradication, eradication, eradication. They wanted to have a "balanced" policy in Afghanistan: alongside our counter-insurgency policy we should also have a pro-insurgency policy. Karzai resisted that too.

(The charge about poverty is the one that upsets Tom the most. He cites the UN, actually the UN Office of Drugs and Crime, which argues that poverty and poppy cultivation are not connected and says he would not support a policy that attacked the poor. I am analyzing the effect of the policies not the intentions behind them. See our report for an explanation of the poor data and statistical fallacies on which UNODC bases its claim. The World Bank takes the position that "Dependence on opium cultivation is associated with poverty.")

To his credit, Tom tried to introduce more incentives and more enforcement. It is very good that he compiled a list of corrupt officials with data that would hold up in a US court (and he is a law professor, not, I think of the Yoo/Addington variety, so he should know). But just who did he think was going to arrest or fire these people?

It's simple: assume the existence of a state.

What does this mean? Tom Schweich says that Afghanistan's Attorney-General, Abdul Jabbar Sabit, says he wanted to arrest 20 corrupt officials and that Karzai stopped him. Unlike Tom, I have known Sabit for 20 years. He helped me in my research by introducing me to some of his colleagues in Hizb-i Islami. But I would not necessarily take everything he says literally.

Actually Sabit did try to arrest a corrupt official one time, General Din Muhammad Jurat, one of the most powerful Northern Alliance commanders in the Ministry of the Interior. The upshot was that Jurat detained Sabit and disarmed and beat his men. This was not in a remote area on the Pakistan border but less than an hour's drive north of Kabul in an area considered to be under "government" control. What does that mean? It means that Jurat and people like him are the government. There is no state that operates independently of power holders like Jurat. The project is to build such a state, not assume its existence and use it based on that false assumption.

The same applies to Samina Ahmed's incoherent critique of "talking to the Taliban," though at times she opposes negotiating with the Taliban and at other time accepting the Taliban's most extreme demands, as if this were the same as talking to them (this is the John Bolton approach to diplomacy: surrender first, then we'll discuss the terms). (Samina is also a friend, but I wonder if ICG takes the same position on Hamas, Hizbullah, or Iran?)

According to Samina, the international community should first build a state in Afghanistan and then negotiate the Taliban's surrender. Talking now would just be a "quick fix" that would not work. First we should build a functioning nation-state, and then construct the political agreement on which it will be based. Sounds good to me! And how do we build that state without a political agreement? Assume the existence of legitimacy.


Anonymous said...

Insightful and readable as always. But I think it’s worth adding a critique of Schweich’s preferred policy option, aerial spraying.

Why is not possible to conduct aerial spraying then, as Schweich suggests in his piece? Simple. Afghan farmers do not use chemicals, so aerial eradication will likely be blamed as the cause of disease, premature deaths or crop destruction, which is a regular but unrelated occurrence in Afghanistan, as in any developing country. The Afghan government, already mistrusted, would suffer from any backlash.

Unknown said...

Dan, thanks for posting this. I'm so bored with this argument that I didn't bother to make it again. But I hear the US embassy in Kabul is gearing up for one last try this year. Neither Obama or McCain had a good word to say about eradication in their statements on Afghanistan, so I guess this is it.

Anonymous said...

Perhaps the building of an Aghan state should be left to the Afghan people and not foreign powers? Just a thought.

Anonymous said...

As far as the cause of insecurity and drug problem in Afghanistan is concerned, Mr. Rubin has hit the nail at the head: Lack of a legitimate, effective state is the root cause of insecurity and drug problem in the country.

Yet, the more important question remains: How would one build a legitimate and competent state in Afghanistan, a country whose experience and collective memory in state-building is solely limited to episodes of using brute force to achieve the task?

There are two sets of formidable problems facing any project of state-building in Afghanistan: The intrinsic divisions and inconsistencies of the Afghan society; and a flawed understanding of the art and intricacies of nation-building per se among foreign powers who are engaged in nation-building in Afghanistan.

A simple, and perhaps quick and more effective way of nation-building in Afghanistan may be to let it be done the Afghan way. But because of well-known reasons, the world is not ready to accept the Afghan way as a model for action.

Thus, for years to come, we will see an Afghanistan with a weak, impotent state strongly dependent on rents provided by foreign sponsors and illegal domestic activities such as drug production smuggling, and terror.

It sounds pretty pessimistic; yet, there is no way around it.

Anonymous said...

June 11, 2008

The Forgotten War

My specialty is Afghanistan, and I want to focus a little bit on it, primarily because it is a war that we have forgotten, that our media has forgotten. And if it's one major thing that the media learned from Afghanistan that they applied to Iraq, it is that Americans are willing to sanction a war if they believe that that war will save those brown people over there. And Americans tend to respond well to what I call the rhetoric of liberation. We've heard it a lot over the past several years since 9/11. We've heard it a lot. We heard it ad nauseam in the lead-up to the war with Afghanistan. We fell for it—those burqa-clad women, the women who needed saving, and the majority of Americans felt that, of course, in addition to wreaking vengeance for 9/11, we would have the added bonus of saving a country and its women.

And this is what BusinessWeek had to say in December 2001 on the aftermath of the fall of the Taliban. They said, "The victory over Taliban tyrants is a victory for humanist values. The scenes of joy in the streets of Kabul evoke nothing less than the images of Paris liberated from the Nazis. Women taking to the streets to bask in the Afghan sun, free at last to show their faces. Children gathering to fly kites, a once forbidden pastime. Old people dancing to music, banned for many years.

"The liberation of Afghanistan," says BusinessWeek, "from the tyranny of the Taliban is a watershed event that could reverberate for years. The warm embrace by ordinary people of the freedom to do ordinary things is a major victory for Western humanist values."

Now, this works very well. This kind of rhetoric works very well for a media that is part of the fabric of this society and for a citizenry that has remained blind to the fact that the only changes in Afghanistan since the fall of the Taliban are on paper....

Anonymous said...

June 11, 2008

The Forgotten War

But what are major presidential candidates saying about Afghanistan? Let's look at the one that most people are excited about saving us from the war in Iraq, Barack Obama, saying the Iraq war has distracted us from Afghanistan. The real war is Afghanistan, according to Barack Obama. He may get us out of Iraq. He may. And he will get us deeper into Afghanistan.

And the only way that we can hold him accountable is if we know what's really happening there, if we hear the voices of women like Malalai Joya, the Afghan parliamentarian, a young intrepid social worker risen to fame in her country, known as the most famous woman in Afghanistan. You hear her more often on my program, "Uprising," and "Democracy Now!"—Amy Goodman has interviewed Malalai several times—than you do in the mainstream media. What is Malalai Joya, this woman that we supposedly have enabled her liberation, what is she saying? She wants the US out of Afghanistan, because they're doing more damage than good, OK?

The alternative media, unfortunately, are just—you know, are not that much better than the mainstream media on Afghanistan. We could do so much more. We could do so much better on Afghanistan than we have done.

And so, just to go back to that question of what the media have learned from both these wars, is that humanitarian concerns are something that can be manipulated to justify war, that Americans will be hooked on the notion that we can save those brown peoples over there, that we will support war if it's based on the premise of saving lives, rather than to secure oil flows, etc., capitalizing on a mass sense of well-intentioned superiority that exists in this country that our armed troops can save those brown peoples. The media knows this, because it is part of this fabric. It capitalizes on it, parading a series of grateful spokespeople as proof, rather than giving voice to a majority represented by women like Malalai Joya, who are perfectly capable of saving themselves....

Anonymous said...

I know so little about Afghanistan, but I know enough not to want to continue an American war there. We need to leave, but what has happened is war in Afghanistan is suddenly considered the "right" war and we will be adding to the war indefinitely. Finally Democrats and Republicans are agreed, a war we all can cheer. Yuch.

Anonymous said...

In fact, things are getting worse and worse. How many of you know about the fact that violence is up 50 percent since last year in Afghanistan? Afghanistan is a country that's, by the way, 50 percent bigger in size than Iraq, has a population four million more than Iraq. This is not about a hierarchy of oppression; it's simply for comparison purposes. So, last year, violence up by 50 percent; 140 suicide bombings in a country that had never really seen suicide bombings as a phenomenon before December 2005; over 50,000 NATO troops, of which about half are US soldiers; US soldiers dying at a rate higher than dying in Iraq, that is, per soldier, more US soldiers dying in Afghanistan than in Iraq....

Anonymous said...

That's why Obama is no better than Bush or McCain. He just wants to kill a *different* set of brown people! And he wants to invade a *different* country (Pakistan vs Iran.)

Wonderful choices.

Anonymous said...

A week never passes without reading a United Nations report on the terrible humanitarian difficulties in Afghanistan, but that seems of no account in our concern for war. So we are at war in an impossibly poor country, having astonishingly been at war there since 2002.

We paint a school and I am supposed to cheer while children who might be going to the school grow hungrier, and when we fail to notice even the painting of a school, knowing there are worsening problems than lack of paint, we blame the Afghans.

Anonymous said...

I read the cover story on Afghanistan, The Right War, in Time Magazine, because I was trapped in an office, and thought about the inane writer, who "lives" in Kabul, who has become a professor at Harvard, and who gives not the slightest sense of what Afghanistan is about. British, if I remember, which makes sense since Afghans are treated as irrelevant unless they are our sort of Afghans.

Anonymous said...

When was the last time talking to Mullah Omar yielded any compromise?

Please be clearer about what final solution you envisage can be achieved by 'talking' to Mullah Omar, so we can understand what specifically you mean when you criticise the ICG point of view against talking?

Anonymous said...

Would there be a possible backlash if we as a international community try to drop tons of seeds, instead of the finished product, for wheat, grain, and the like.

Then the next spring, if poppies show up, we destroy the crop with a wildfire and plant the field by air.

Or better still, instead of using chemicals, we plant "weeds" that take over the poppy garden. Such weeds would be carrots, sunflowers, raspberries, etc.

Then if the locals want to grow drugs instead of food, we know who the corrupt farmers are.

If you would like to stop corrupt practices, you must provide some real alternative. Asking a populace to change their ways will never lead to change. You must force this change without asking the locals to take the responsibilities, for they will likely be killed.

Anonymous said...

Someone has apparently forgotten their history. Before the invasion poppy production was virtually eliminated. It has grown every year under the occupation to the current massive level. Maybe they already had a handle on things? Maybe someone in the west is profiting from this?

Besides you know things are bad when even an Afghan women's association (RAWA) says things were better under the Taliban. (Yes, women had few rights, but their daughters didn't get shot walking to school or blown up going to a wedding.)

Remember that Mullah Omar had said at the time he was willing to turn over OBL when the US requested it as long as they provided evidence of his guilt. The US promised to provide this in a white paper, but never did. How can you expect a country to extradite someone without documented evidence?

Anonymous said...

Right now Afghanistan has a state of poverty. The idealistic state does not exist because of the lack of a central state objectivity.
However the tribes exist as a state but then lack both national and international coherency.

Anonymous said...

As as there is a country called Pakistan, there will be opium production in Afghanistan, terrorists and extremists all over the globe.

Who makes the most from the opium production in Afghanistan? You would agree that it ain't the Afghan farmers. Any ideas?

Eliminate the ISI and you may get rid of many problems in Afghanistan, South and Central Asia, and the rest of the world.

If the U.S. and her allies fail to do that, they will lose Afghanistan and probably the entire Asia except Japan.

Anonymous said...


July 26, 2008

Obama, in France, Says Pressure on Iran Is Building

Both men agreed that Afghanistan is "a war we have to win," Mr. Obama said, vowing to send two more American brigades to fight the Taliban and Al Qaeda there. Mr. Sarkozy, who has already sent another 700 French combat troops, said that "we are not allowed to fail" in Afghanistan and let the Taliban again "prevent 6 million little girls from going to school." ...

Anonymous said...

November 18, 2007

Fifth Least Developed Country In the World

KABUL - Afghanistan has dropped a place in a UN global human development index, which ranks countries based on their citizens' economic income, life expectancy and literacy rate, according to the country's National Human Development Report (NHDR) for 2007.

Afghanistan was ranked 174th out of 178 countries - ahead of only Burkina Faso, Mali, Sierra Leone and Niger. In Afghanistan's first-ever human development report, which was released in 2004, the country was ranked 173rd and was widely expected to improve its human development indicators.

Afghans live almost nine years less than people in other Least Developed Countries, the report's findings show.

"Life expectancy [in Afghanistan] has dropped from 44.5 years in 2003 to 43.1 years in 2005," states the report, which was released on 18 November in Kabul....

Widely devastated by over 25 years of armed conflict, Afghanistan has one of the lowest adult literacy rates among developing countries, with the literacy rate for adults over the age of 15 falling from 28.7 percent in 2003 to 23.5 percent in 2005, the report states.

Afghan women, in particular, suffer lack of access to education. "Enrolment rates for women at the primary, secondary and tertiary levels are almost half that of men - 41.8 percent for females and 73.7 percent for males," the report said.

Women are also deemed far behind men in other human development indicators, such as access to health services, employment opportunities and longevity....

July 26, 2008

Obama, in France, Says Pressure on Iran Is Building

Both men agreed that Afghanistan is "a war we have to win," Mr. Obama said, vowing to send two more American brigades to fight the Taliban and Al Qaeda there. Mr. Sarkozy, who has already sent another 700 French combat troops, said that "we are not allowed to fail" in Afghanistan and let the Taliban again "prevent 6 million little girls from going to school." ...

Anonymous said...

May 18, 2008

"I Sold My Daughter to Feed the Rest of My Family"

SHIBERGHAN - Sayed Ali (not his real name) said he sold his 11-year-old daughter, Rabia, for US$2,000 to a man in Sheberghan city, Jawzjan Province in northern Afghanistan to feed his wife and three younger children.

With food prices in Afghanistan having soared over the past few months and the 40-year-old father unable to find work, he said had no other choice but to sell his daughter to save his family from starvation.

"Even animals don't sell their children, because they love them and want to die for them, not to mention human beings. For too many days I stood next to roads and asked people for work, but always ended up disappointed. I couldn't go home empty-handed and disappoint my starving children, so I used to scavenge in garbage and collect leftover food.

"I would lie to my family and say I bought them food from the market. But now it's even hard to find anything edible in the garbage because of [increasing] food prices. People now eat all their food because it's very expensive and also the numbers of those who scavenge in garbage has increased.

"Because I am illiterate, no one will give me a job. I am illiterate because of war and poverty. I didn't go to school because my parents wanted me to work. My children also don't go to school and they'll also be brought up illiterate like me.

"How can someone sell his own child? It's like selling your eyes or selling your heart!

"As no one would give me work I had no other option but to sell my lovely daughter. I sold her only to save the rest of my family. I sold her only to buy food for my younger children who otherwise would have died from hunger.

"I know people will say I am a cruel and merciless father who sold his own child, but those who say so don't know my hardship and have never felt the hunger that my family suffers....

Both men agreed that Afghanistan is "a war we have to win," Mr. Obama said....

Anonymous said...

Lemme put it this way: When was the last time the Pak Army accepted a compromise of its absolute control on Pakistani matters that it will now accept a compromise of its quest for absolute control on Afghan matters? Pak Army has never hestitated to behead, exile or dismiss Pakistani Prime Ministers and send home National Assemblies with elected majorities in its quest for complete control, over Pakistan and Afghanistan.

State reform of Pakistan has to precede state reform of Afghanistan. Affirming and rewarding Pak Army ambitions in Afghanistan via Afghan Taliban will only destabilise both states progressively as has been happening even without US help since 1992.

Its like a time bomb, either you defuse it now or you have to pick up the pieces later.

Anonymous said...

It is a always a case of chicken and the egg. If the government acts decisively many will fall into line.

With little vision and almost no will to act we will never find out what Karzai could have done.

Better to have tried.....

Anonymous said...

Schweich and the rest of the USA team are experienced at one thing: eradicating Colombian coca. Their veiws on the harmlessness of roundup (glyphosate) are very controversial,
NOT accepted by many USA scientists and farmers. Google it for yourself. The fact that Schweich here states his view without qualification, based only the statement of one of his subordinates (who is in turn quoting hearsay from a relative) demonstrates the advanced stages of Schweich's hubris. It is a sign of progress that Schweich no longer works for USA in Afghanistan.

Anonymous said...

I recently had a discussion with an Afghani in Pakistan. His argument was why can't Afghanis grow what they want on their land. It is up to the West to control their drug problem WITHIN their own borders. I tend to agree with him. If the US has a heroin problem, isn't the solution to stop the drug trade within their borders rather than bombing another country who legally grows it.

The US seems to think all solutions are found in bombs, invasions, and occupations.

Let the Afghanis grow their crops and spend the US money to find out why Americans need to use drugs. Then help them rather than kill Afghanis. When the demand ends, so will the growing of the crops.

The US solution is always misguided.

Anand said...

Barnett R. Rubin, this is a well written piece, as many of yours are. Some obvious points:
1) annual revenue of the Afghan state = about $800 million before Aynak
2) The Aynak copper mines should bring in another $400 million in annual revenues.
3) A pipeline to Pakistan and India, if it is ever built, would bring in maybe $300 million in annual revenues. But this is "MANY" years a way. All potential investors are currently demanding a very high risk premium to invest (Afghanistan, Pakistan, India and the Stans (southern former USSR) don't want to pay the premium.)

Yet “foreign” (especially western) people expect the Afghan government to achieve many things, because they look at Afghanistan through western ethnocentric lenses. The Afghan government doesn’t have the revenues to achieve the many things foreigners expect. No Afghan government has ever achieved what is being expected of the current Afghan government.

What is needed is foreign grants targeted at increasing Afghan capacity (Afghanistan’s ability to productively use more foreign aid, and increase Afghanistan’s potential GDP.)

Unless aggregate supply (potential GDP) is increased, more foreign aid merely increases the real trade weighted value of the Afghan currency, and pushes up Afghan domestic inflation.

Potential GDP is increased by increased physical capital (including public goods capital such as roads, security), human capital (education), and total factor productivity. Total factor productivity is how well workers use their tools (physical and human capital) to produce output. Total factor productivity is the reason why some countries are affluent and others are not.

The fact is that not enough was done on this front until November, 2006, when Bush asked congress for an additional $10 billion in Afghan grants. As Ahmed Rashid (and many NATO briefs) has (have) pointed out, there has been considerable success in primary education and opening many new universities (and expanding existing universities) in a short period of time. However the pay off for these human capital investments takes decades to materialize. Still, this effort needs to be significantly ramped up.

Physical capital investment has been far to little in size, and far less efficient. This (as Rashid again says) needs to be significantly boosted. The payoffs for this again is measured in many years.

The third type of investment needed is to increase the institutional capacity and efficiency of the Afghan civilian government ministries; including their ability to successfully execute large budget projects.

All of these investments are much more important than NEW DEAL type programs that merely boost short term aggregate demand. The problem in Afghanistan today (as Rumsfeld correctly pointed out) is that the Afghan economy and the Afghan government cannot efficiently use large amounts of foreign grants. In the absence of increased Afghan capacity, increased grants merely lead to higher inflation and a stronger inflation adjusted currency. These are already large problems with existing foreign grants, if these grants are spent inside Afghanistan (versus importing goods and services from abroad.)

These are the long term policies that need to be begun today. But we shouldn’t expect significant payoffs for many more years.

The other issue is what can be done to increase the capabilities, size and quality of the ANSF.

Barnett R. Rubin, can we e-mail each other offline. Some of my friends maintain a very precise OOB of the ANSF (Afghan National Security Forces.) I would love to discuss this with you. As well as performance for specific Afghan civilian ministries.

You are one of the best scholars I have seen about Afghanistan, as this article demonstrates. I have been following you ever since Juan Cole let me know about your blog.

Anonymous said...

Schweih's experience was entirely in Colombia promoting aerial eradication with roundup (glyphosate), that is why he was chosen to go to Afghanistan, same is true of USA ambassador. BUT the truth is that aerial eradication in Colombia is a failure.
"The United Nations reported in June that coca cultivation in Colombia surged 27 percent in 2007 to 244,634 acres, the first significant increase in four years."
Plan Colombia is a failure, why expand it's faulty methods to Afghanistan?

Anonymous said...

I am not sure, if Mr.Karzai can do more than that against Narcotics. We all know that this problem is not only Afghanistan problem but International problem. I have to say that I have not seen any kind of visible efforts of investments of the international community to fight this problem.

The fundimental solution to Afghanistan's stability is to build its walls particularly with Pakistan. Our borders should be secured in anycost. Secondly, International community should take a rigid stance against the ISI of Pakistan.

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