Wednesday, February 27, 2008

Rubin: Taliban?- What's That Got to Do with the Price of Bread?

In the opening scene of Louis Malle's film My Dinner with Andre, the playwright/actor Wallace Shawn (memorably portrayed by playwright/actor Wallace Shawn) kvetches to himself as he goes about his New York daily errands:
I've lived in this city all my life. I grew up on the upper east side, and when I was ten years old I was rich! I was an aristocrat, riding around in taxis, surrounded by comfort, and all I thought about was art and music. Now I'm thirty-six, and all I think about is money!
I thought of this scene after I returned from a trip to Taliban-ruled Afghanistan in 1998. A few months later, during a discussion at the International Peace Academy, I summarized my findings as, "Outside of Afghanistan, all people think about about is Islam and extremism, but inside Afghanistan all people think about is money."

I often have flashbacks to this, most recently when a reporter who was gearing up for his first trip to the region by reading books on theology and political ideology asked me how it was possible for Hanafi Muslims like the Taliban to ally with Wahhabis like al-Qaida -- was it because the Deobandi school was closer to Wahhabism? I replied (with a pinch of exaggeration) that this had nothing to do with anything, and to understand the Taliban he would be better off looking into the price of bread.

Outside of Afghanistan people want to know if Deobandis are a type of Hanafis that are closer to Wahhabis, but inside Afghanistan all people think about is the price of bread. As I was leaving Kabul in January, the fixer who helps me get through lines and avoid bribes at the airport started complaining about the price of bread (as for bribes -- when one of the border police at the numerous airport checkpoints asked him for some money for tea, he pointed to me and said "mahman-i rais-i jamhur ast wa-farsi mifahmad" -- he's a guest of the President and understands Persian -- both clauses of which were exaggerated but effective). He complained that people in Afghanistan were concerned with only one thing: getting enough bread to eat, and so many were not able to do so. The prices of everything were so high! Under the Taliban the price of everything was much lower. I pointed out to him that we were driving to the airport (much improved, difficult though it is to believe for those seeing it for the first time) along a newly paved wide highway that could accommodate the increased traffic. He acknowledged all that, but said that many people were better off under the Taliban.

I paused a little bit to let that sink in, and then I asked him, So do people want the Taliban to come back? His eyes bugged out as if I had completely lost my mind, and he started waving his hands in the air and shouting, "No! No!" Of course this man had a secure job with the government, was about to leave for English-language training course in India, and had been able to go on hajj last year. I don't think that foreign soldiers had broken into and searched his house or killed, arrested, or abused any of his relatives (at least he never mentioned it, which others did). He was a hajji, but a clean shaven hajji. And by the looks of him, he was getting his daily bread, and then some.

But I had heard quite a bit about this bread. Someone told me that food prices had gone up 70 percent. After General Musharraf declared a state of Emergency during my visit in November, notes from Pakistani friends often spoke of a growing shortage of "atta" (whole wheat flour). On my flight to Delhi from Kabul I sat with a senior official of the Indian Customs Service who was advising the Afghan Customs Department. He told me that Afghanistan was importing only ten percent the amount of wheat that it had last year. U.S. Ambassador William Wood was trying to convince Afghan villagers that food shortages (like the insurgency) were due to poppy cultivation. (I always heard that food shortages led Afghans to cultivate poppy so they could buy wheat plus have some cash for other needs -- but that would require assuming that farmers earn money for their crop and can buy food on a market.)

What is going on? The Wall Street Journal (behind subscription firewall) answers the question this morning (hint -- it's not the scourge of narcotics or, to be fair, General Musharraf either):
The little known Minneapolis Grain Exchange is suddenly one of the hottest spots in the global financial markets.... Yesterday wheat closed at $22.40 a bushel on the Minneapolis Grain Exchange, up from about $5 a year ago....Minneapolis has become ground zero for the global wheat shortage, which has been caused by drought in Australia and poor weather in other grain-producing countries. Global stocks are projected to reach 30-year lows this year, while U.S. stocks will reach 60-year lows.

The rise in agricultural prices, combined with high oil prices .. have contributed to higher food inflation in the U.S. and around the world....

Another byproduct of the rally by wheat and other grains is that food is becoming more politicized as countries dependent on food imports fear they will be left at the mercy of volatile markets and shrinking supplies. Such a development could exacerbate hunger while generating food riots or political problems at home.

To cope with high prices, countries have been rationing supplies by leveling tariffs or taxes on grain exports. [Kazakhstan and Syria have taxed or canceled exports, while Jordan and Egypt are short of food.] Pakistan recently stopped exporting some of its wheat flour to Afghanistan.
In addition, countries accounting for a third of global exports (Russia, Kazakhstan, Ukraine, Argentina, and China) have taken some wheat off the market to address domestic shortages.

"Food riots or political problems...." Of course there were those riots in Kabul in May 2006 in which a few hundred angry young men paralyzed the capital for much of a day.... At several meetings I have heard former Minister of Finance of Afghanistan Ashraf Ghani say that the most common definition of a "Talib" in southern Afghanistan is "an unemployed youth." Some Kandahari fruit traders I interviewed said that nearly all the fighting in Afghanistan was due to unemployment. Statistically, youth employment is one of the most robust correlates of civil violence.

Another thought -- this bad weather, drought, and so on leading to shortages not seen in decades.... Could it be related to climate change? I don't know. But I suspect that neither missile strikes, nor more NATO troops, nor a deeper study of Islamist political ideology will enable us to solve these problems.

35 comments:

Anonymous said...

Dear Rubin,

As always, well written and insightful.

Any suggustion you have? lol.

Anonymous said...

Related: Saudi Arabia has decided to stop producing wheat altogether, largely because of water shortage. A small but symbolic event.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/f02c1e94-e4d6-11dc-a495-0000779fd2ac.html

Afghanistan Strategic Analysis & Debate Forum said...

Dear Rubin,

Undoubtedly, the unemployment can be one of the factors for Taliban recruitments but it has been more used as a tool to get more funds and attention of the donor community towards south. already great extent of development funds are being spent in the south to win hearts and mind, which has not been successful. The most oppressed and even now ignored parts of Afghanistan is central, where people are living with meagerer essentials but have neither became Talib nor cultivated poppy. Similar is the northern parts of Afghanistan, the unemployment is on its peak but people did not become Taliban. The people of central and northern parts of country are angry on having less attention by the donors and government in their development programmes but have never become insurgents. the slogan of unemployment in the south has been used more to get further development benefits and attention.

Anonymous said...

The subject of a very wonderful and distinct
I thank you for continuing excellence
Thank you

=========================================================================

ليبيا
شباب ليبيا
libya
منتديات
غرائب وحقائق
احاديث شريفة
برامج اسلامية للجوال
مفاتيح الديجيتل
الشيرنج
الرسيفرات
كتب إسلامية
خلفيات للموبيل
الشعر الشعبي
الصحة والطب
طب اسنان
كتب طب اسنان مجانية
برامج طبية
تعليم اللغة الإنجليزية
تعليم اللغة الفرنسية
الطب البديل
خواطرادبية
ازياء و موضة
تعليم الطبخ
الاثاث الحديث
مقاطع كرة قدم
المصارعه الحرة
اهداف كوورة
الفوتوشوب
اقوى برامج
الدوري الليبي
خلفيات
المصارعة
كورة عربية
كرة قدم عالمية
الدوري الإيطالي
الدوري الاسباني
الدوري الإنجليزي
صور المشاهير
انواع الحلويات
افلام كوميدية
احدث الافلام
افلام
التقنية
تحميل افلام
برامج
اخر برامج الجوال
أفلام كرتون عربية
برامج كمبيوتر
برامج حماية
برامج اختراق
برامج صوت
تحميل احدث البرامج
محادثة
خلفيات الطبيعة
برامج مبايل للتحميل
اخبار الفن
احدث الافلام للتحميل
تحميل افلام رعب
ترجمة أفلام
الكامات
برامج جوال
برامج محاسبة
برامج
games
برامج
انترنت
برامج صوتية
شبكات الحاسوب
خلفيات للويندوز
تطويرالمواقع
العاب
العاب الفيديو
games
شفرات
برامج مسنجر
خلفيات شاشة
صور ترحيبيه
الفوتوشوب
خلفيات طبيعة
تطويرالمواقع
الفوتوشوب
مقاطع البلوتوت
خلفيات
الفلاش
التصميم الثلاثي
برامج الجوال
العاب الجوال
فيديو كليب
مسجات
ترددات ستالايت
نغمات

Anonymous said...

高水准的同声译员是确保会议的关键因素深圳翻译公司选用的庄绎传先生编写的英汉翻译教程,实际上,这本书也就是翻译公司他所写的简明英汉翻译教程广州翻译公司,同时的翻译同声传译会的。
翻译,同声传译这本书也是很多学校考同声传译翻译专业研究生所必备的教材翻译公司。北外的高级翻译学院用的也是这套教材。但是主要的问题不是教材很难,上海翻译公司要害是考试的内容是和书上要一模一样的深圳翻译公司,所以同学翻译公司在复习的时候就会觉得很辛劳,深圳翻译一个单词翻译的和书上不一样就可能出现错误,所以知识点的把握确实深圳同声传译是很重要的

Anonymous said...

Laser marker,Laser Marking Machine,Laser Engraver
MCSEccnaflexible coupling
Japan tour
Japan tours
Japan holiday
designer bag
louis vuitton replica
handbag wholesale
replica bag
handbag replicastair lifts
stairlifts
bath lifts
bathlifts
wheelchair ramps
access ramps
disabled ramps
wheelchair ramp
mobility scooters
wheelchairs
rug
rugs
Counselling Aberdeen
Hypnotherapy Aberdeen
Hypnosis Aberdeen
designer bag
louis vuitton replica
handbag wholesale
replica bag
handbag replica
Designer rugs

Anonymous said...

The china CNC router specialized for large quantity processing. An CNC router can be used in Three-dimensional wave board processing and the CNC router can also be used in different kinds of furniture assistance processing.

vinyl cutter offers powerful combination of simplicity, flexibility and low cost of vinyl cutter that has never been seen before in the imprinting vinyl cutter industry. The vinyl cutter’s speed, accuracy, reliability and high vinyl cutter’s cutting quality all come standard at a very affordable price.

we also supply the related products such as laser machine ,engraving machine and CNC machines

Anonymous said...

Here is a very famous laser machine supplier:

Dali Jingdiao Co. Limited has over a decade of experience in developing and manufacturing engraving machines. Our product line covers woodworking engraving machines, advertising engraving machines, mini engraving machines, CNC engraving and milling machines, PCB drilling machines, mobile phone glass engraving machines and CNC gantry
engraving machines.
Related Links:
vinyl cutter
China CNC router
laser machine
engraving machine
CNC machines

Tel:86-755-89630504
Fax:86-755-89631606
Contact Person:Mr. David
City/Province:Shenzhen/Guangdong
Country/Region:China
Company Address:No. 102-110, M10 Building, Huanan City, No. 1 Huanan Road, Pinghu Street, Longgang District

www.avila-3d.com said...

Gosh, there's a lot of helpful material above!

ivy said...

when will the war end?




______________________________________________________________

Rc Hobby|Rc Helicopter|Rc Helicopter Parts

Buy Ritalin Online said...

Hi! This is my first visit to your blog! We are a team of volunteers and new initiatives in the same niche. Blog gave us useful information to work. You have done an amazing job!

tubal reversal said...

I have discovered your blog today and I love it!! You make very beautiful things and your tutorials are very good. I will add your blog to my list. Congratulations for your works!!

organic vitamins said...

I have no words to appreciate this post ..... I'm really impressed with this post .... the person who created this post was a big thank you man .. for sharing with us.

buy adderall online said...

Thanks for your many years of a great service well done! I’ve always felt good about listing my concerts with you and linking from my website.

Dietas Online said...

For weight loss is looking very promising indeed. Apart form assisting you to achieve your weight loss goals, you would also enjoy a host of health benefits.

Energy Supplements said...

Thanks for supporting the idea of 360 degree feedback. I’ve seen it create division in senior teams when handled incorrectly and seen transformation happen when used elegantly. It’s all about the intention and skill of those who facilitate the process.

find hospitals in your area said...

I like the valuable information you provide in your articles.

Computer repairs melbourne said...

Preservation and promotion of health is achieved through a combination of physical, mental and social well-being, sometimes called "the triangle of health." Health is a positive concept focuses on the social and personal resources, as well as physical capacities.

drug forum said...

Wonderful site and I wanted to post a note to let you know, ""Good job""! I’m glad I found this blog. Brilliant and wonderful job ! Your blog site has presented me most of the strategies which I like. Thanks for sharing this.

on site laptop screen repair melbourne said...

This is good site to spent time on .I just stumbled upon your informative blog and wanted to say that I have really enjoyed reading your very well written blog posts. I will be your frequent visitor, that's for sure.

Unknown said...

Hey its been really a very good and informative post to read on. I will keep these points in my mind from now onwards, hope will not commit mistakes

towing company in richardson

Washington dc locksmith said...

I am very happy to be here because this is a very good site that provides lots of information about the topics covered in depth. Im glad to see that people are actually writing about this issue in such a smart way, showing us all different sides to it. Please keep it up. I cant wait to read whats next.

Unknown said...

Very efficiently written information. It will be beneficial to anybody who utilizes it, including me. Keep up the good work. For sure i will check out more posts. This site seems to get a good amount of visitors.

Roadside assistance addison

locksmith in silver spring md said...

Wonderful post. I am searching awesome news and idea. What I have found from your site, it is actually highly content. You have spent long time for this post. It's a very useful and interesting site. Thanks!

locksmith in bethesda md said...

Wonderful post. I am searching awesome news and idea. What I have found from your site, it is actually highly content. You have spent long time for this post. It's a very useful and interesting site. Thanks!

lewisville towing said...

Really your blog is very interesting.... it contains great and unique information. I enjoyed to visiting your blog. It's just amazing.... Thanks very much
lewisville towing

dallas towing said...

Really i appreciate the effort you made to share the knowledge.The topic here i found was really effective to the topic which i was researching for a long time

movers in virginia said...

If you need more traffic to your website check out the website in my name. It really helped me and i think it can help your website.

movers in marryland said...

I really enjoy simply reading all of your weblogs. Simply wanted to inform you that you have people like me who appreciate your work. Definitely a great post. Hats off to you! The information that you have provided is very helpful.

movers washington dc said...

I really liked your article. Keep up the good work.

Unknown said...

Preservation and promotion of health is achieved through a combination of physical, mental and social well-being, sometimes called "the triangle of health." Health is a positive concept focuses on the social and personal resources, as well as physical capacities.
emergency locksmith manhattan

Unknown said...

Interesting Article. Hoping that you will continue posting an article having a useful information.
change locks on car

KingHawk said...

I was very amazing why i not see your web page before i would come returning.
Locksmith Washington DC

business gas prices said...

I Like your blog,will sharing this with my friends, excellent work.

business gas prices

cheap jersey said...

Cheap NIKE NFL Jerseys
cheap mlb jerseys