Wednesday, September 5, 2007

Theses on Policy toward Iran

As I and many others have noted, there are increasing signs that the administration has decided or has nearly decided to launch an air and sea attack on Iran, which will include but not be limited to all installations connected to the country’s nuclear program. All military equipment is in place for such an attack (three carrier battle groups in the Persian Gulf). As I wrote in a recent blog, there are credible reports of a concerted campaign to build public support for such an attack. The aim is said to be to get support in polls up to about 35-40%, but the most important goal is to intimidate the Democrats in Congress, in particular through AIPAC and allied groups, so that they will not use either the power of the purse or Congress’ war powers to impede the attack. The administration is counting on Democrats saying they don’t want to “tie the president’s hands” as he deals with this mortal threat to the U.S. and Israel. The Anti-Defamation League announced today a campaign with the theme "No Nuclear Iran."

Under the Cheney-Addington interpretation of the U.S. Constitution, there is no need for any Congressional consent to such an action by the President. In any case, the Authorization for the Use of Military Force of September 18, 2001, suffices, as it authorizes the use of such force against any terrorists or states harboring terrorists. There is no requirement that the President certify or Congress approve any such designation. The argument would be strengthened, however, if the administration formally designated the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps (Sepah-e Pasdaran) or its elite unit, the Qods (Jerusalem) Force, as a terrorist organization, a proposal that has been floated in the press. In that case the Iranian state would be officially designated as harboring terrorists.

The rationale for such an act of war is likely to be that it is necessary to prevent a terrorist state from acquiring nuclear weapons. Any hint of Iranian compliance with international demands would interfere with the campaign. Hence part of the PR campaign that has started for the war will consist of attacks on Mohamed El-Baradei and the IAEA, as in 2002-2003 over Iraq, when, of course, the IAEA was proved right and its critics wrong. Such at attack, presumably authored by Fred Hiatt, commenced on the editorial page of the Washington Post today. For some reason, the Post editorial does not mention its similar editorial from January 28, 2003, where it made identical false charges against El-Baradei.

The Bush-Cheney policy on Iran is unlikely to have any outcome but war, not because of the threat of the use of force, but because of its objective: regime change. The President and Vice-President have never echoed the disavowals of this goal by other officials. Their supporters at AEI, the Weekly Standard, and elsewhere, make it clear that the goal of the policy is destroying the regime of the Islamic Republic of Iran. Even if this were not true, the government (and not only the government) of Iran believes it is true. In repeated discussions on several continents over the past five years, Iranian officials have told me that the main obstacle to improvement in U.S.-Iran relations is the agenda of regime change – not Israel, not Iraq, nothing else. No amount of pressure or threats will force the Iranian government to negotiate its own destruction. Therefore as long as regime change is the goal, or appears to be the goal, Iran has no credible incentives to comply with any demands. Threats are useless. Sanctions are useless. In any case, sanctions will strengthen and enrich the regime, as they almost always do.

The Bush administration discarded an opportunity to expand cooperation with the government of President Muhammad Khatami after the U.S. and Iran collaborated to remove the Taliban regime and establish the Government of Hamid Karzai in Afghanistan. I witnessed that cooperation as a member of the UN team at the Bonn conference. The Bush administration threw that chance away, declaring Iran a member of the Axis of Evil. It did so under President Khatami, who never denied the Holocaust or said that the Israeli regime, like the Soviet Union, was destined to disappear from the pages of time (which is what Ahmadinejad actually said, not that Israel should be wiped off the map). Therefore Iran does not believe that there is any genuine link between the extremist statements of President Ahmadinejad and U.S. policy, as the Bush administration had exactly the same policy toward the Government of President Khatami. Ahmadinejad has indeed called Israel the “bearer of Satan,” the equivalent in Persian of calling a country a member of the “axis of evil.” There is a fearful symmetry of demonization.

The advocates of war claim that the Iranian regime is a monolithic, revolutionary regime whose aim is destruction of world order and in particular the U.S. and Israel. The argument is identical to that of Cold Warriors who argued that the USSR was a monolithic revolutionary regime with exactly the same aims. Because the regime is “evil” and monolithic, negotiations are impossible (see AEI fellow Reuel Marc Gerecht’s article in the current Newsweek). Internal change or reform is also impossible. There are no Iranian moderates or realists with whom one can work for change, just as there were no moderate or reform communists in the USSR. These same people argued that everything Gorbachev did was part of a plot to trick the West and strengthen Soviet Communism. They now make the same arguments about Iran.

In part thanks to them, we are now dealing not with the Iranian Gorbachev, but with the Iranian Putin, who is rather worse than the original. Nonetheless, the Iranian power structure still includes people with a range of views, from conservative realist to reformist, with whom it is possible to engage, if an agenda of regime change did not sabotage any efforts on their part. I meet with such people regularly. Certainly the Iranian democratic opposition has made clear its opposition to forcible regime change.

There is an alternative to war, but it has to start with an end to regime change as a policy goal. There are then a number of areas, such as counter-narcotics in Afghanistan and the territorial integrity of Iraq, where the U.S. and Iran have clearly complementary interests and could start a dialogue. I will not attempt to sketch a road map here, and it will be difficult to move far as long as the current administrations are in power in both countries.

The alternative of war will have terrible effects including:

  • No support for the U.S. from any country but Israel (though Saudi Arabia and other Arab states may not be too unhappy) and the demolition of whatever still remains of the U.S.’s international standing except as a warmaking power; that reputation will also quickly dissipate as this war, too, fails to achieve its objectives.
  • Rapid deterioration of security in (at least) Iraq, Afghanistan, and Pakistan; note that much of the support for Benazir Bhutto, whom the U.S. hopes will help shepherd a political transition in Pakistan, comes from Pakistani Shi’a, who will turn violently anti-American in the event of an attack on Iran; northern Afghanistan is also under the de facto control of groups supported by Iran against the Taliban; the government of Iraq in Baghdad will oppose an attack on Iran, but our new friends in Anbar province, whom President Bush visited on Labor Day and who fought Iran for Saddam Hussein, will support it and maybe even volunteer to fight.
  • Gasoline prices may reach $7/gallon within a week and probably go higher rapidly, especially if Iran makes even partially successful attempts to block the Strait of Hormuz.
  • Either there will be a movement of national solidarity against invasion in Iran from across the entire Iranian political spectrum, or (less likely) Iran will collapse into some kind of civil disorder, with nuclear materials littered about.
  • Hizbullah and Hamas will unleash missile attacks and perhaps suicide bombings on Israel, and Israel will respond harshly in Lebanon and Gaza (at least).
  • Such an attack will also have other unpredictable consequences, which I will therefore not try to predict.

What course of action do I suggest?

The immediate goal for Democratic presidential candidates and the Democrats (and sensible Republicans) in Congress should be to use the power of the legislative branch to prevent the administration from launching a war. I can think of two possible ways to do this:

  • Pass an Act of Congress stating that the 2001 AUMF does not authorize a preemptive strike against Iran (or a strike in response to an alleged provocation – recall Tonkin Gulf). In this case, Congress would claim that war with Iran requires new authorization.
  • Cut off funding for any war with Iran not specifically authorized by Congress in accordance with the law after September 30, when spending starts out of next year’s budget. Presumably they won’t be able to start the war by then and rely on the “support the troops” argument.

In coordination with this immediate response, responsible leaders in both parties should articulate an alternative policy toward Iran starting with the same principle as the Helsinki Accords of 1975 – no regime change. The same political groups that want war with Iran today opposed the Helsinki Accords of 1975 because they recognized the Soviet control of Eastern Europe. But these Accords were instrumental in bringing about the collapse of the USSR and rise of independent forces in Central and Eastern Europe.

Under different leaders, the U.S. could start work on such a détente today. It will take years and it cannot advance much while Bush-Cheney and Ahmadinejad are in power. But we should not let them destroy such opportunities for the future.

54 comments:

Nell said...

All military equipment is in place for such an attack (three carrier battle groups in the Persian Gulf).

Which three? As far as I know, only the Enterprise is there now, with the Truman scheduled to leave on October 1 (putting it in place in late October or early November).

There's not a hint of U.S. troops, which are dispersed in 'mini-forts' in Shia neighborhoods all over Baghdad, being moved into more secure areas.

Is it possible that you are operating somewhat beyond your expertise here?

I have no doubt that intimidating Democrats in Congress is a goal, but it won't be necessary to launch an attack to accomplish that.

Anonymous said...

Query. Say we enact legislation requiring Congressional authorization before making war upon Iran, what is the status of our treaties with Israel? What happens if Israel strikes Iran and Iran retaliates in force? Do our treaties enable our entering into war on Iran in defense of Israel?

Nell said...

The immediate goal for Democratic presidential candidates and the Democrats (and sensible Republicans) in Congress should be to use the power of the legislative branch to prevent the administration from launching a war.

Democratic presidential candidates and Democrats in Congress ("sensible" Republicans can be counted on the fingers of one hand) have already determined that sanctions and "tough talk" are their alternative to launching a war on Iran.

They have voted overwhelmingly for punitive sanctions; they accept the administration's terms of debate.

Yes, they ought to use their war powers and the power of the purse to bar any such attack. And I have been lobbying and organizing for that result for a long time. But it's not looking likely.

nathanielpowell said...

I know a lot of the speculation about war preparations comes partly from the Times Online article citing Alexis Debat's assertion that the Administration has a "3 Day Blitz" plan"

What I know about this guy suggests that he may be exaggerating quite a bit. Recently he supposedly gave an interview to Barack Obama for the French international relations journal "Politique internationale." The Obama campaign has denied ever giving the interview, and when the French press looked into the story, Debat claimed he actually interviewed Obama through a third person, which also proved to be not true. If you can read French, there's an interesting article on Debat's record, including nice little tidbits about the origin of his Ph.D...

At any rate, the link is here:
http://www.rue89.com/2007/09/05/une-fausse-interview-dobama-dans-politique-internationale

Nell said...

Military and Congressional analysis aside, your post is excellent and welcome on the question of what U.S. policy toward Iran should be.

Anonymous said...

The location of the aircraft carriers is somewhat overrated as an indicator of an imminent air offensive. If you or your sources track any more of them down, let us know, nell. John Pike might be of help.

It is highly unlikely that US forces in Iraq would be pulled back to bases while their numbers are at or near current levels. Doing so would compromise much-touted objectives just when progress toward their attainment is being reported (accurately or not). I doubt that US Command would want them concentrated on a few bases even if war with Iran were to be commenced. Whatever the deployment configuuration at the time might be, air power would come even more into play in Iraq (with different air squadrons attacking and patrolling Iran, by and large), and rules of engagement might be loosened. Iraq would be a very dangerous place to be, for everyone, in any case.

Much of the preparatory persuasion campaign is indeed playing up Iran as an imminent nuclear threat. That might be a hard case to make persuasively, however, after the yellow cake uranium hoax of a few years ago. The allegation that Coalition personnel are being killed by explosive devices made in and smuggled from Iran, or made in Iraq by Iran-trained operatives, might fare better as a cause for military action, especially if convincing hard evidence is presented to the Congress and the public. Striking the alleged weapons smugglers and trainers would be a limited operation, though, and fears of what might happen next are unavoidable. I suppose the biggest fear is, what would happen if Iran, or an ally, were to attack Israel.

Unknown said...

Mr. Rubin sounds like you are taking over the campaign before it even starts by AEI, I can asure you Iranians historicly will not fall with the scare campaign that looks like it is starting from the
left side this time. In past 4 years I alone seen that this campaign changes colors and side so often that now is easy to identify if there is a need for war let Americans start that.

Anonymous said...

There is a third option to prevent an overt military attack on Iran -- promptly initiate impeachment proceedings against Bush & Cheney jointly.

Barnett R. Rubin said...

I am indeed operating beyond my expertise, and therefore it is even more likely than usual that I will make mistakes. (I frequently make mistakes in my "area of expertise.") In almost every post on this subject, I have discussed my reluctance to start writing on this topic for that very reason. I never wrote anything about the war in Iraq, except for analyzing its effect on Afghanistan, because there were others such as Juan Cole taking up that subject. In this case some people are sharing information with me, and I see hardly any informed discussion of this issue. I request readers to treat this as an open source and to bring their own knowledge and expertise to check and improve it. I did not post this to prove I am right but to try to stimulate discussion and action.

Anonymous said...

Your opposition to another US war of aggression is admirable, Mr Rubin, but to me your obvious Democrat sympathies leave you sounding rather naive.

What on Earth makes you think "Democratic presidential candidates and the Democrats .... in Congress" have any particular desire to prevent a murderous attack on Iran?

With the main presidential candidates queuing up to warmonger, and Pelosi intervening to quash an inconvenient amendment requiring Bush to seek further specific Congressional authorisation before attacking Iran, the Democrat leadership appear to a less biased observer to be closer to enthusiastic accomplices than cowed would-be opponents, as far as American military aggression is concerned.

Anonymous said...

Frankly I don't see any new emphasis on the "attack Iran" agenda. I see the same thing as last year and teh year before -- in addition to a lot of TALK about how there is supposed to be a new emphasis on attackign Iran.

Don't believe the hype.

Anonymous said...

Two other carriers, Nimitz and Kitty Hawk are off Sri Lanka, drilling with the Indian Navy in Malabar 07-02. That's 2 days sail from battle stations off Iran.

http://informationdissemination.blogspot.com/2007/09/7th-fleet-focus-malabar-07-02-order-of.html

If Petraeus drops a bombshell on Sept. 11, they'll still be there.

Anonymous said...

You state that that "the Authorization for the Use of Military Force of September 18, 2001, suffices ... authorizes the use of such force against any terrorists or states harboring terrorists." Actually, it is narrower than that, requiring a substantive link to Sept. 11. Specifically, it authorizes the President "to use all necessary and appropriate force against those nations, organizations, or persons he determines planned, authorized, committed, or aided the terrorist attacks that occurred on September 11, 2001, or harbored such organizations or persons." Now, Cheney, Addington and crew may try to gin up a Sept. 11 link, but I don't think they could do so particularly persuasively.

More broadly, while I don't trust this Administration for a second, I don't really see any external evidence that a vigorous campaign to lay the groundwork for an attack on Iran.

Nell said...

@Barnett Rubin: The most important part of your post by far is the discussion of policy toward Iran, especially passages like this:
There is an alternative to war, but it has to start with an end to regime change as a policy goal.

Your experience and relationships with Iranian officials gives you much-needed credibility to underscore the dangerous effects of further efforts to isolate Iran and impose punitive sanctions. Your point about the Bush administration's poisoning of the relationship well before Ahmadinejad's election is very effective.

So I'd encourage you to drop the inaccurate and unsupported statement that "All military equipment is in place for such an attack."

Though it's important for Americans to grasp that this administration believes it can strike Iran without any further authorization from Congress (and that Congress itself has passed up several chances to demonstrate that), it is not likely that an attack is imminent.

It is likely that this next month of sustained propaganda will succeed in further demonizing the government and people of Iraq, getting harsher sanctions in place, and increasing the chances that there will be a military strike at some point in the next year.

What's important, if a Democratic administration is going to take power in 2009, is to shame Democratic politicians for helping narrow the terms of debate on Iran, that box us into a position from which engagement and real negotiations become ever harder and war is an ever-greater risk.

Nell said...

shame Democratic politicians for helping narrow the terms of debate on Iran, that box us into a position from which engagement and real negotiations become ever harder and war is an ever-greater risk.

And the way to do this is to counter their pandering exaggerations and outright lies:

There is no evidence that Iran seeks nuclear weapons.

They are signatories to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and cooperating fully with the IAEA.

If Iran were to seek nuclear weapons, it's quite clear that they would do so for the same reason as other countries, like Israel, have -- for deterring attack. Israel has hundreds of nuclear missiles, many targeted on Iran.

U.S. bases ring Iran. The President has repeatedly invoked the specter of missile attacks on Iran, including nuclear missiles.

Iran has not attacked any other country in the region in the living memory of anyone on this planet. Saddam Hussein's Iraq attacked Iran to start a ruinous war during the 1980s, in which we supplied weapons to both sides but primarily supported Iraq.

Iran is allied with the two main parties that make up the current Iraqi government, voted into office by Iraqis in an election that our government endlessly promoted as free and democratic.

There is no credible evidence that the government of Iran is supplying weapons or components for roadside bombs or organizing attacks on U.S. troops in Iraq.

Iran's human rights record is appalling. So is that of Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, and many other "allies" of the United States.

This effort to isolate and ruin Iran is not about human rights, or nuclear weapons, or terrorist organizations. It's about U.S. strategic control of oil resources. Just as is almost every other aspect of our policy in the middle east.

Anonymous said...

We shouldn't expect the entire missile-armed and carrier fleet to be configured in one body of water. For “surgical” strikes or even the first waves of a blitz, the current configuration of air assets at sea and at land bases would be formidable. And the war-hungry seem to be thinking, “If not soon, when?”

I hope that sanity and conscience will take hold and that President Bush won't give in to those who urge him to “just do it.” The Congress should examine what they're about and decide if any stand is, to them, worth making. Both executive branch and legislative branch elected officials should realize that diplomatic engagement is not an act of giving in.

I don't find Mr. Rubin's positions to be dovetailing with the foreign policy positions most widely held by Democrats in Congress. Both parties have had a large hand in leading the country astray.

Da' Buffalo Amongst Wolves said...

When the USAF 'misplaced' 5 nuclear weapons by 'accident' I immediately, and cynically assumed the next 'accident' would have been dispatching that B-52 towards the Persian Gulf...

Not yet...

But we will, and my bet is the Democrats will gerrymander the reasons to do it.

Quite simply, the U.S. should have been working on alternative energy sources when it became a net importer of oil in 1973, and IMHO, it's too late now. Add the fact that bureaucrats in government come from the middle of the intellectual curve, and it's easy to see that it's WAY TOO LATE to develop an alternative energy economy. Our leaders don't have the capability of thinking 'outside the box' even if preventing nuclear war depended on it.

Why should they? Only the U.S. & Russia have the capability to destroy any & ALL nations that get in their way. They'll just split up the 'greasy booty'.

The rest are just 'One-Trick' nuclear 'powers' who could only take out one nation or so before being destroyed themselves

Bomb Iran, take their oil, terrorize the rest of the oil-producing nations that their fate might be the same if they don't "cooperate', or take the other option. Crash/burn the U.S., and by extension the rest of the globalized economy.

Ugly ugly ugly...

In light of needing to maintain the energy economy at this late stage of the petro-age, is there any other 'rational' (in the McNamara sense of 'rational') option?

Anonymous said...

@nell

>>So I'd encourage you to drop the inaccurate and unsupported statement that "All military equipment is in place for such an attack." <<

Well, do you know Rubin's source? How do you know they are unsubtantiated or in accurate? For example, I can think of a number of very obvious reasons that he may NOT be telling everything he knows (or thinks he knows) and musing publically very, very carefully indeed.

Leila Abu-Saba said...

Why so many anonymous commenters here? Anonymous 1, 2 and 3 etc. etc. Makes it hard to follow. Can you all be that afraid of discussing Iran publicly?

I'm an Arab-American peacenik and I don't bother to cover my tracks too closely. If the spies want to find me they will, no matter what I tried.

It's just weird to see people talking about an "open source" discussion of policy, when half the commenters call themselves anon, anon and anon.

Anonymous said...

Courageous leila, take up the anonymity issue on your blog and we'll have at it. There's not a neat courage versus cowardice dynamic. You might, however, check out what happens to some of the peaceniks of the world who get subjected to close electronic scrutiny.

Anonymous said...

@Nell,

It's an air campaign planned. There could be an attack at any time. The majority of the assets are USAF, not Navy and these deploy in 48 hours from stateside bases. The campaign is a STRATCOM Global Strike which postulates being able to go on 10 hours notice from stateside bases and available regional assets. At least that's whet the 2 Brits the Larisa A. cited in her Raw story Report said.

http://rawstory.com//news/2007/Study_US_preparing_massive_military_attack_0828.html

That story fits with what Col. Lang said in Vanity Fair last spring about the attack having been handed off to STRATCOM, who had come up with "a punishing" attack plan.

http://www.vanityfair.com/politics/features/2007/03/whitehouse200703

It would seem that the flyboys at SAC live on. Lemay had similar plans from 1949 or so, involving nukes being thrown at the target en masse to maximize shock. I don't find Prof Rubin's article all that misinformed.

Unknown said...

nell who ever you are bravo, all this week I have been reading the so called progressive analysis that is supposedly to counter and inform the activist of the upcoming media blaze from the Neocon side on Iran. What is amazing is that blogers like you are so informed that disinformation in form of warnings does not move them any more, no matter how the objective is hidden behind the circled around words.
Unlike your last post the progressive analyst due to their own patriotic nationalism will hide the bottom line truth of the real cause of US/Western policy for Middle East has been in past 60 years, therefore at the end of the day they are informing the public no more then the CNN does.
As you wrote in last line of your recent post “It's about U.S. strategic control of oil resources. Just as is almost every other aspect of our policy in the middle east.” We the Middle Easterners know this from the day we could hear our parents talking privately at home regardless of their class and education I guarantee if you go to a far off village in corner of the desert in Iran like I did and ask a fourteen year old teen that why are the US forces in Iraq she will tell you OIL. I suppose same is true in any other corner of the Middle East.

The educated westerners who have knowledge of history and economy also know this reasons like you know, but they are also living here therefore they need the oil as much as the uneducated ones. I haven’t read a single article that in short says OK we need the oil we believe and advocate free market economy for the word let see if we can negotiate with this camel driver Islamofacists terrorist or as we progressives call them sophisticated ancient cultures and see if we can buy their oil at a fair market value so we will not need to invade or install a tyrant to rule them as president for life or constantly scare them if you are not obedient we will attack you.

May be Mr. Rubin who had negotiated with Mr. Zariff in the past should call his informant body in the state department and tell him to hold off I can call Zarif and see if we can make a long lucrative oil contract to buy the Iranians oil and have the people of Iran make their own decision of who should govern them.

And to Lila I sympathize with you I know how you feel since we both have background in the countries that we were had to be anonymous to be safe from our own governments if you were not anonymous you could not be able to exit from the country in US this is called “No Fly List” there are currently 100000 or more on this list even a 5 year old in my country this is called “mamnooe Al khoroge” is the same thing and like in 3rd world countries the public knows when the government prints money and pays the bills but the term for this here is “ Fed has increased the liquidity” that means they have printed money and released it through the banks.

Nell said...

woCarrier group location is pretty much public info, since they're too big to hide and there are Navy and home-port press releases that can be googled, etc. See here and here; John S., what sources are you using?

It adds nothing to Barnett Rubin's valuable analysis of diplomatic policy toward Iran for him to state that there are three carrier battle groups in the Persian Gulf when there manifestly are not -- it even detracts from his analysis because that statement is so easily fact-checked. That, in combination with his free admission that military logistics is not an area of expertise for him, casts doubt on his assertion that "all military equipment is in place for such an attack."

It may not affect the actual situation of the moment much: As John says, there are two more carrier groups within easy traveling distance. Another is scheduled to arrive in the Gulf or the Arabian Sea in late October.

I've never denied that there could be an attack at any time, in fact I've spent the last two years on my blog and in comment sections noting the signs that point to the possibility, fighting the propaganda that lays the groundwork for such an attack, and recently trying to rouse liberals out of the delusion that Democrats or Republicans in Congress will be able or willing to prevent an attack on Iran if the Decider decides to do that.

But I doubt very seriously that an attack will be launched before the full propaganda rollout is done, and until we see how the UN Security Council members respond to the U.S. push for new, tighter sanctions.

There is much more to military preparation for a strike on Iran than simply having planes ready to go. There are anti-aircraft measures. There's a huge amount of securing positions of troops in Iraq, unless you believe the thousands of GIs in around Bahgdad, Baquba, and eastern and southern Iraq are just going to be hung out to dry.

I have no more military expertise than Mr. Rubin, but probably not significantly less, either. I do have a family member on a carrier, which is one of the reasons why I've been following the logistics of this issue fairly closely for the last few years.

@anon at 12:41 pm: The author of the post has not named any of his sources and I would guess will not do so. He's sensibly clarified that he's passing on information to stimulate discussion and contributions. I'm providing some of that discussion. Skepticism based on open-source information and common sense helps in the search for something like the truth when strong claims are being made by unnamed sources.

I'm grateful to Barnett Rubin for bringing these concerns to the fore, for laying out an approach to Iran policy that I wish with all my heart were the policy of the Democratic leadership and presidential candidates, for providing this forum for discussion, and for taking time to participate in that discussion.

A suggestion for commenters who want to retain anonymity: End your post with a pseudonym that you stick with, just so it's possible for other commenters to tell one anon from another.

Anonymous said...

@Nell,
I use your 2 sources for carriers plus this one:

http://informationdissemination.blogspot.com/

A useful site called Information Dissemination, not exclusively about deployments. I don't disagree with you about the tempo, which would be what logical folk would do. But I remember the run into Iraq with 2 deployed divisions and wonder about logic here. I trained for an infantry career officer's gig before My Lai and the lack of thorough prosecution of the Americal Div. chain of command made me not sign something binding in college ROTC. I don't mention that for the sob story but because I knew and have kept up with the sort of armchair general stuff you need to evaluate ground operations. For my money, invading a country the size of Iraq with such a small force is so crazy that I have a hard time with believing that these bozos will do anything logical. (I'm also convinced that both Bush and Cheney aren't right in the head.) BTW, have you factored in that when the Truman deploys, it might deploy with the Eisenhower? They did a joint JTFEX, and the last time the Navy did one of those, both the Stennis and the Reagan were back out in 2 months.

Anonymous said...

Laying aside the moral issues for a moment to look only at strategy, there's no way to time a military offensive against Iran well, is there? Command would not want to pull back ground forces to bases without achieving considerably more toward meeting objectives, surely, and by the time that could be done, if it could be, deployment time would be at the most very short for most of the surged companies. If the pulling back were to be undertaken after the surge, or near its end, the logistics and security of moving most of the ground forces would be especially difficult.

An attack against Iran while Coalition ground forces are in roughly the current configuration would pose significant risks for those forces. An attack against Iran while the ground forces are moving to bases would pose significant risks to them. Moving the ground forces to a few bases pre-attack would make them less vulnerable to hostile elements on the ground, but the bases would be big targets for missile strikes while Iran or its allies possessed missile-launch capabilities (those capabilities would be intensively targeted, of course). And how likely is it that most of the ground forces would get to hunker down on bases, with all that would be going on? Most that would have been achieved toward operation objectives in Iraq would quickly be lost; I find it hard to imagine, then, that an attack on Iran, if President Bush commences it, would not occur when the troop strength in Iraq is at or near its peak.

Hopefully President Bush won't attack Iran, but if he's going to, he's running out of time. I hope he'll take time to think and to listen to wise counsel. Regime change by force of arms should not be considered.

Anonymous said...

Leila - people post anoymously simply because it is easier than to log in. And choosing a name is no guarantee of anything.

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ショッピング枠 現金化
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不動産
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RAID復旧
データ復元
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キャッシング
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Anonymous said...

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Anonymous said...

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Anonymous said...

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Anonymous said...

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Anonymous said...

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Anonymous said...

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Anonymous said...

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結婚指輪

Unknown said...

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Unknown said...

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Unknown said...

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مسلسلات كرتون مسلسلات اجنبية مسلسلات خليجية مسلسلات سوريه مسلسلات عربيه
موسيقى مسلسلات نغمات مسلسلات صور مسلسلات مقاطع مسلسلات مسلسل الجاسوسات
مسلسلات خليجيه مسلسلات كويتية مسلسلات اجنبيه مسلسلات الكرتون مسلسلات كويتيه
ترجمة مسلسلات

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taylor little -
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teeny bopper club -
terry lightspeed -
tgirl adventures -
tgirl island -
the big swallow -
throat jobs -
tinys black adventures -
tit vision -
tori stone -
tranny surprise -
true twinks -
tug jobs -
upskirts -
vaginal cumshots -
vengified -
vip crew -
voyeur dorm -
we live together -
wetscape -
wild hot dates -
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xxx raimi -
8th street latinas -
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all big cocks -
all reality pass -
all sites access -
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first time auditions -
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giants black meat white treat -
gigi lightspeed -
got fooled -
granny fucking -
heather lightspeed -
heels and hoes -
her first throatjob -
hood bobbin -
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horny spanish flies -
hungarian butt sluts -
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in focus girls -
interracial fuck -
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moms creampie -
monsters of cock -
mr big dicks hot chicks -
mr chews asian beaver -
mr skin -
my gay roommates -
nikki grinds -
old tarts -
one crazy night -
our fuck friends -
ox pass -
panties and fannies -
papi -
perfect dp -
pimp my black teen -
please bang my wife -
public invasion -
rainbow vip -
reality kings -
reality pass plus -
real latin hardcore -
reel 18 -
ronni tuscadero -
round and brown -
round mound of ass -
sammy4u -
sapphic erotica -
see her squirt -
sexier -
sex spy -
she got switched -
shocking parties -
simply gay -
simply tranny -
sinful tales -
spy cams -
stacy bride -
street blowjobs -
street ranger -
super men -
sweet devon -
tawnee stone -
taylor little -
teen movie zone -
teens home alone -
teen teen teen -
teeny bopper club -
terry lightspeed -
tgirl adventures -
tgirl island -
the big swallow -
throat jobs -
tinys black adventures -
tit vision -
tori stone -
tranny surprise -
true twinks -
tug jobs -
upskirts -
vaginal cumshots -
vengified -
vip crew -
voyeur dorm -
we live together -
wetscape -
wild hot dates -
wild match -
wives exposed -
xxx proposal -
xxx raimi -
8th street latinas -
18 interracial -
adult dating friends -
adult friend finder -
adult love line -
adult movie zone -
all big cocks -
all reality pass -
all sites access -
a lucky stranger -
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asian angels -
asian love line -
asia porno -
ass licking xxx -
ass parade -
bait bus -
ball honeys -
bangbros network -
bang bus -
bang match -
bare foot maniacs -
barely legal -
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big league facials -
big mouthfuls -
big naturals -
big tit patrol -
big tits round asses -
black cocks tiny teens -
boys first time -
boys gone bad -
brandi belle -
brandy didder -
britney lightspeed -
bruno b -
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college party dates -
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extreme naturals -
facial humiliation -
faith lightspeed -
female pov -
first time auditions -
fuck spy -
giants black meat white treat -
gigi lightspeed -
got fooled -
granny fucking -
heather lightspeed -
heels and hoes -
her first throatjob -
hood bobbin -
hood hunter -
horny spanish flies -
hungarian butt sluts -
im live -
in focus girls -
interracial fuck -
in the vip -
ir orgy -
i spy camel toe -
jordan capri -
lacey white -
latin love line -
lesbian teen hunter -
lesbo 101 -
lightspeed 18 -
lightspeed dvds -
lightspeed girls -
lightspeed sorority -
lightspeed tv -
lightspeed university -
lightspeed world -
little troublemaker -
lonely wives dating club -
male next door -
mandy lightspeed -
man hookups -
meaty man movies -
men in the nude -
men over 30 -
mike in brazil -
mikes apartment -
milf challenge -
milf hunter -
milf internal -
milf lessons -
milf next door -
milf whore -
moms creampie -
monsters of cock -
mr big dicks hot chicks -
mr chews asian beaver -
mr skin -
my gay roommates -
nikki grinds -
old tarts -
our fuck friends -
ox pass -
panties and fannies -
papi -
pimp my black teen -
please bang my wife -
public invasion -
rainbow vip -
real ass munchers -
real brazil hardcore -
reality kings -
reality pass plus -
real latin hardcore -
reel 18 -
ronni tuscadero -
round and brown -
round mound of ass -
sammy4u -
sapphic erotica -
see her squirt -
sexier -
sex spy -
she got switched -
shocking parties -
simply gay -
simply tranny -
sinful tales -
spy cams -
stacy bride -
street blowjobs -
street ranger -
super men -
sweet devon -
tawnee stone -
taylor little -
teen movie zone -
teens home alone -
teen teen teen -
teeny bopper club -
terry lightspeed -
tgirl adventures -
tgirl island -
the big swallow -
throat jobs -
tinys black adventures -
tit vision -
tori stone -
tranny surprise -
true twinks -
tug jobs -
upskirts -
vaginal cumshots -
vip crew -
voyeur dorm -
we live together -
wetscape -
wild hot dates -
wild match -
wives exposed -
xxx proposal -
xxx raimi -
8th street latinas -
18 interracial -
adult dating friends -
adult friend finder -
adult love line -
adult movie zone -
all big cocks -
all reality pass -
all sites access -
a lucky stranger -
anal destruction -
ashley lightspeed -
asian angels -
asian love line -
asia porno -
ass licking xxx -
ass parade -
bait bus -
ball honeys -
bangbros network -
bang bus -
bang match -
bare foot maniacs -
barely legal -
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big tits round asses -
black cocks tiny teens -
blondes of porn -
boys first time -
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brandi belle -
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britney lightspeed -
bruno b -
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captain stabbin -
casting couch teens -
circle jerk boys -
coeds need cash -
college party dates -
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courtney lightspeed -
creampie sluts xxx -
cumfiesta -
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dana lightspeed -
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dirty aly -
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dirty schoolgirl -
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erica lightspeed -
euro fuck toys -
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extra big dicks -
extreme asses -
extreme naturals -
facial humiliation -
faith lightspeed -
female pov -
first time auditions -
fuck spy -
giants black meat white treat -
gigi lightspeed -
got fooled -
granny fucking -
heather lightspeed -
heels and hoes -
her first throatjob -
hood bobbin -
hood hunter -
horny spanish flies -
hungarian butt sluts -
im live -
in focus girls -
interracial fuck -
in the vip -
ir orgy -
i spy camel toe -
jordan capri -

Anonymous said...

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little troublemaker -
lonely wives dating club -
mandy lightspeed -
man hookups -
meaty man movies -
men in the nude -
men over 30 -
mike in brazil -
mikes apartment -
milf challenge -
milf hunter -
milf internal -
milf lessons -
milf next door -
milf whore -
moms creampie -
monsters of cock -
mr big dicks hot chicks -
mr chews asian beaver -
mr skin -
my gay roommates -
nikki grinds -
old tarts -
ox pass -
panties and fannies -
papi -
pimp my black teen -
please bang my wife -
public invasion -
rainbow vip -
real ass munchers -
real brazil hardcore -
reality kings -
reality pass plus -
real latin hardcore -
reel 18 -
ronni tuscadero -
round and brown -
round mound of ass -
sammy4u -
sapphic erotica -
see her squirt -
sexier -
sex spy -
she got switched -
shocking parties -
simply gay -
simply tranny -
sinful tales -
spy cams -
stacy bride -
street blowjobs -
street ranger -
super men -
sweet devon -
tawnee stone -
taylor little -
teen movie zone -
teens home alone -
teen teen teen -
teeny bopper club -
terry lightspeed -
tgirl adventures -
tgirl island -
tgirls on girls -
the big swallow -
throat jobs -
tinys black adventures -
tit vision -
tori stone -
tranny surprise -
true twinks -
tug jobs -
upskirts -
vaginal cumshots -
vip crew -
voyeur dorm -
we live together -
wetscape -
wild hot dates -
wild match -
wives exposed -
xxx proposal -
xxx raimi -
8th street latinas -
18 interracial -
adult dating friends -
adult friend finder -
adult love line -
adult movie zone -
all big cocks -
all reality pass -
all sites access -
a lucky stranger -
anal destruction -
ashley lightspeed -
asian love line -
ass licking xxx -
ass parade -
bait bus -
ball honeys -
bangbros network -
bang bus -
bang match -
bare foot maniacs -
barely legal -
big and slutty -
big cock teen addiction -
big league facials -
big mouthfuls -
big naturals -
big tit patrol -
big tits round asses -
black cocks tiny teens -
blondes of porn -
boys first time -
boys gone bad -
brandi belle -
britney lightspeed -
bruno b -
busty adventures -
captain stabbin -
casting couch teens -
circle jerk boys -
coeds need cash -
college party dates -
college teens bookbang -
creampie sluts xxx -
cumfiesta -
cum filled panties -
cum on boys -
dana lightspeed -
dirty aly -
dirty schoolgirl -
easy drunk girls -
ebony love line -
erica lightspeed -
euro fuck toys -
euro masturbation -
euro sex parties -
evitas playhouse -
extra big dicks -
extreme asses -
extreme naturals -
facial humiliation -
faith lightspeed -
female pov -
first time auditions -
giants black meat white treat -
gigi lightspeed -
got fooled -
heather lightspeed -
heels and hoes -
her first throatjob -
hood hunter -
horny spanish flies -
housewives in action -
im live -
in focus girls -
in the vip -
i spy camel toe -
jordan capri -
lacey white -
latin love line -
lesbian teen hunter -
lesbo 101 -
lightspeed 18 -
lightspeed dvds -
lightspeed girls -
lightspeed sorority -
lightspeed tv -
lightspeed university -
lightspeed world -
little troublemaker -
lonely wives dating club -
mandy lightspeed -
man hookups -
meaty man movies -
men over 30 -
mike in brazil -
mikes apartment -
milf challenge -
milf hunter -
milf lessons -
milf next door -
milf whore -
moms creampie -
monsters of cock -
mr big dicks hot chicks -
mr chews asian beaver -
mr skin -
my gay roommates -
nikki grinds -
ox pass -
panties and fannies -
papi -
pimp my black teen -
please bang my wife -
public invasion -
rachel 18 -
rainbow vip -
real ass munchers -
real brazil hardcore -
reality kings -
reality pass plus -
ronni tuscadero -
round and brown -
round mound of ass -
sammy4u -
sapphic erotica -
see her squirt -
she got switched -
she takes it black -
shocking parties -
stacy bride -
street blowjobs -
street ranger -
sweet devon -
tawnee stone -
taylor little -
teen movie zone -
teeny bopper club -
terry lightspeed -
tgirl adventures -
tgirl island -
tgirls on girls -
the big swallow -
throat jobs -
tinys black adventures -
tranny surprise -
true twinks -
tug jobs -
vaginal cumshots -
vip crew -
we live together -
wild hot dates -
wives exposed -
xxx proposal -
xxx raimi -
8th street latinas -
18 interracial -
adult dating friends -
adult friend finder -
adult love line -
adult movie zone -
all big cocks -
all reality pass -
all sites access -
a lucky stranger -
anal destruction -
ashley lightspeed -
asian love line -
ass licking xxx -
ass parade -
bait bus -
ball honeys -
bangbros network -
bang bus -
bang match -
bare foot maniacs -
barely legal -
big and slutty -
big cock teen addiction -
big league facials -
big mouthfuls -
big naturals -
big tit patrol -
big tits round asses -
black cocks tiny teens -
blondes of porn -
boys first time -
boys gone bad -
brandi belle -
brandy didder -
britney lightspeed -
bruno b -
busty adventures -
captain stabbin -
casting couch teens -
circle jerk boys -
coeds need cash -
college party dates -
college teens bookbang -
creampie sluts xxx -
cumfiesta -
cum filled panties -
cum on boys -
dana lightspeed -
dirty aly -
dirty schoolgirl -
easy drunk girls -
ebony love line -
erica lightspeed -
euro fuck toys -
eruo masturbation -
euro sex parties -
evitas playhouse -
extra big dicks -
extreme asses -
extreme naturals -
facial humiliation -
faith lightspeed -
female pov -
first time auditions -
giants black meat white treat -
gigi lightspeed -
got fooled -
heather lightspeed -
heels and hoes -
her first throatjob -
hood hunter -
horny spanish flies -
housewives in action -
im live -
in focus girls -
in the vip -
i spy camel toe -
jordan capri -
lacey white -
latin love line -
lesbian teen hunter -
lesbo 101 -
lightspeed 18 -
lightspeed dvds -
lightspeed girls -
lightspeed sorority -
lightspeed tv -
lightspeed university -
lightspeed world -
little troublemaker -
lonely wives dating club -
mandy lightspeed -
man hookups -
meaty man movies -
men over 30 -
mike in brazil -
mikes apartment -
milf challenge -
milf hunter -
milf lessons -
milf next door -
milf whore -
moms creampie -
monsters of cock -
mr big dicks hot chicks -
mr chews asian beaver -
mr skin -
nikki grinds -
ox pass -
panties and fannies -
papi -
pimp my black teen -
please bang my wife -
public invasion -
pussy ass mouth -
rachel 18 -
rainbow vip -
real ass munchers -
real brazil hardcore -
reality kings -
reality pass plus -
ronni tuscadero -
round and brown -
round mound of ass -
sammy4u -
sapphic erotica -
see her squirt -
she got switched -
she takes it black -
shocking parties -
stacy bride -
street blowjobs -
street ranger -
sweet devon -
tawnee stone -
taylor little -
teen movie zone -
teeny bopper club -
terry lightspeed -
tgirl adventures -
tgirl island -
tgirls on girls -
the big swallow -
throat jobs -
tinys black adventures -
tranny surprise -
true twinks -
tug jobs -
vaginal cumshots -
vip crew -
we live together -
wild hot dates -
wives exposed -
xxx proposal -
xxx raimi -
8th street latinas -
18 interracial -
adult dating friends -
adult friend finder -
adult love line -
adult movie zone -
all big cocks -
all reality pass -
all sites access -
a lucky stranger -
anal destruction -
ashley lightspeed -
asian love line -
ass parade -
ass to mouth angels -
bait bus -
ball honeys -
bangbros network -
bang bus -
bang match -
bare foot maniacs -
barely legal -
big and slutty -
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she got switched -
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round mound of ass -
sammy4u -
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see her squirt -
she got switched -
shemale hookups -
she takes it black -
shocking parties -
stacy bride -
street blowjobs -
street ranger -
sweet devon -
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sammy4u -
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see her squirt -
she got switched -
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she takes it black -
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facial humiliation -
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first time auditions -
gangbang divas -
giants black meat white treat -
gigi lightspeed -
heather lightspeed -
heels and hoes -
her first throatjob -
hood hunter -
horny spanish flies -
im live -
in focus girls -
in the vip -
i spy camel toe -
jordan capri -
lacey white -
latin love line -
lesbian teen hunter -
lesbo 101 -
lightspeed 18 -
lightspeed dvds -
lightspeed girls -
lightspeed sorority -
lightspeed tv -
lightspeed university -
ilghtspeed world -
little troublemaker -
lonely wives dating club -
mandy lightspeed -
man hookups -
meaty man movies -
men over 30 -
mike in brazil -
mikes apartment -
milf challenge -
milf hunter -
milf lessons -
milf next door -
milf whore -
miss mya -
moms creampie -
monsters of cock -
mr big dicks hot chicks -
mr chews asian beaver -
mr skin -
nikki grinds -
ox pass -
panties and fannies -
papi -
perfect dp -
pimp my black teen -
please bang my wife -
public invasion -
pussy ass mouth -
rachel 18 -
real brazil hardcore -
reality kings -
reailty pass plus -
ronni tuscadero -
round and brown -
round mound of ass -
sammy4u -
sapphic erotica -
see her squirt -
she got switched -
shemale hookups -
she takes it black -
shocking parties -
stacy bride -
street blowjobs -
street ranger -
sweet devon -
sweet members -
tawnee stone -
taylor little -
teen movie zone -
teeny bopper club -
terry lightspeed -
tgirl adventures -
tgirl island -
tgirls on girls -
the big swallow -
the pipe layer -
throat jobs -
tinys black adventures -
tranny surprise -
true twinks -
tug jobs -
vaginal cumshots -
vip crew -
we live together -
wild hot dates -
wives exposed -
xxx proposal -
xxx raimi -
8th street latinas -
18 interracial -
adult dating friends -
adult friend finder -
adult love line -
adult movie max -
adult movie zone -
all big cocks -
all reality pass -
all sites access -
a lucky stranger -
anal destruction -
ashley lightspeed -
asian love line -
ass parade -
ass to mouth angels -
bait bus -
ball honeys -
bangbros network -
bang bus -
bang match -
bare foot maniacs -
barely legal -
big and slutty -
big cock teen addiction -
big league facials -
big mouthfuls -
big naturals -
big tit patrol -
big tits round asses -
bikini hookups -
black cocks tiny teens -
boys first time -
boys gone bad -
brandi belle -
brandy didder -
britney lightspeed -
bruno b -
busty adventures -
captain stabbin -
casting couch teens -
circle jerk boys -
coeds need cash -
college party dates -
college teens bookbang -
cumfiesta -
cum filled panties -
dana lightspeed -
desperately horny housewives -
dirty aly -
dirty schoolgirl -
easy drunk girls -
ebony love line -
erica lightspeed -
euro fuck toys -
euro sex parties -
evitas playhouse -
extra big dicks -
extreme asses -
extreme naturals -
facial humiliation -
faith lightspeed -
first time auditions -
gangbang divas -
giants black meat white treat -
gigi lightspeed -
heather lightspeed -
heels and hoes -
her first throatjob -
hood hunter -
horny spanish flies -
im live -
in focus girls -
in the vip -
i spy camel toe -
jordan capri -
lacey white -
latin love line -
lesbian teen hunter -
lesbo 101 -
lightspeed 18 -
lightspeed dvds -
lightspeed girls -
lightspeed sorority -
lightspeed tv -
lightspeed university -
lightspeed world -
little troublemaker -
lonely wives dating club -
mandy lightspeed -
man hookups -
meaty man movies -
men over 30 -
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mikes apartment -
milf challenge -
milf hunter -
milf lessons -
milf next door -
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moms creampie -
monsters of cock -
mr big dicks hot chicks -
mr chews asian beaver -
mr skin -
nikki grinds -
ox pass -
panties and fannies -
papi -
perfect dp -
pimp my black teen -
please bang my wife -
public invasion -
pussy ass mouth -
rachel 18 -
real brazil hardcore -
reality kings -
reality pass plus -
ronni tuscadero -
round and brown -
round mound of ass -
sammy4u -
sapphic erotica -
see her squirt -
she got switched -
shemale hookups -
she takes it black -
shocking parties -
stacy bride -
street blowjobs -
street ranger -
sweet devon -
sweet members -
tawnee stone -
taylor little -
teen movie zone -
teeny bopper club -
terry lightspeed -
tgirl adventures -
tgirl handjobs -
tgirl island -
tgirls on girls -
the big swallow -
the pipe layer -
throat jobs -
tinys black adventures -
tranny surprise -
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