Wednesday, October 22, 2008

Rubin and Rashid in Foreign Affairs: From Great Game to Grand Bargain

Ahmed Rashid and I have just published an article in Foreign Affairs: From Great Game to Grand Bargain: Ending Chaos on Afghanistan and Pakistan.

It opens:
The Great Game is no fun anymore. The term "Great Game" was used by nineteenth-century British imperialists to describe the British-Russian struggle for position on the chessboard of Afghanistan and Central Asia -- a contest with a few players, mostly limited to intelligence forays and short wars fought on horseback with rifles, and with those living on the chessboard largely bystanders or victims. More than a century later, the game continues. But now, the number of players has exploded, those living on the chessboard have become involved, and the intensity of the violence and the threats it produces affect the entire globe. The Great Game can no longer be treated as a sporting event for distant spectators. It is time to agree on some new rules.
I think it is fair to say that Ahmed and I are not as sure of anything as we sound in the article, but we thought it was time to introduce some broader perspectives. We are looking for debate and discussion, not agreement.


Joshua Foust said...

I thought it was a great start in that respect. I like the idea of a contact group, but I'm curious how you could resolve the Durand Line through assurances. That's not to say that that's the only way to resolve it, but when Afghanistan is just one of many unresolved borders Pakistan has to deal with, and it sees so much threat from Iran and India both making huge inroads in Kabul... well, I guess I don't really see how you can find a positive-sum compromise.

But very very very thought-provoking.

yangkee said...
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yangkee said...
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yangkee said...
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You stated that FATA should be incorporated as a province in Pakistan. Can you tell me why this should be acceptable to Afghanistan? The Brits drew the Durand Line about 100 yrs back on what was then Afghan territory. How has that ceased by a mere drawing on a map? And ultimately, the report gives a very slip shod assurance and commitments to INDIA & RUSSIA.

Anonymous said...

That it never occurs to you that we should simply leave Afghanistan and stop killing people is shameful no matter how clever any analysis, though I find no cleverness only an excuse for more American led killing.

Barnett R. Rubin said...

To anonymous: I have been involved with Afghanistan for 25 years. The killing didn't start with Americans, and it won't end if the US withdraws, though perhaps your attention to it will end. Try discussing this with some Afghans to see what they think.

Anonymous said...

What we need to do is to leave Afghanistan, we need to stop our killing in Afghanistan, that Barnett Rubin finds the idea of Americans continuing to destroy Afghanistan does not interest or impress me in the least.

We need to stop our warring where we have no reason to war. That is what morality is about, not the amoral tripe of thinking we are saving Afghanistan by warring there.

Anonymous said...

What is the coming plan, to march about the world saving people everywhere by killing everywhere. Choose the country, choose the field. This is simply amorality.

Anonymous said...

Barnett Rubin, asking Afghans for permission to kill other Afghans for some possible future dream to be realized at the expense of the killed, is a bizarre notion.

Anonymous said...

As Nir Rosen described the matter, we are back to the "white man's burden" rationale. Sarkozy and Obama will save the Afghans by killing Afghans. Gandhi would surely understand.



Barnett Rubin is one of the foremost scholars alive with impeccable insider knowledge on Afghanistan having worked in “special diplomatic” and other capacities in helping Afghanistan through its turbulent period. He is currently Director of Studies and Sr Fellow at the Centre on International Co-operation at NYU.

Ahmed Rashid is an immensely respected journalist synonymous with the seminal book “Taliban” and the recent best selling author of “Descent into Chaos.” Ahmed Rashid had an interesting life earlier, along with the likes of Najam Sethi, in the mountains of Baluchistan.

Both the above gentlemen are extremely important, they form the core group that Gen Patreus has formed to understand the ground situation (historical, ethnic, religious etc) in Afghanistan – hence any article of theirs should be given due importance.

Summarizing the article:
Rubin & Rashid (R & R) state that Afghanistan is a poor country. 50% of its GDP is in illicit form (opium). The Afghan govt collected 7% of a licit GDP est at $ 9.60 Billion in revenue = $ 670 million. R&R go on to extrapolate increasing collection efficiency on an increasing GDP and state that at best in 10 years time, the total domestic revenue of the Afghan govt would be $ 2.50 billion.

The current expense on the Afghan National Army (@70,000 troops today) is $ 2.50 billion and another $1 billion for the police. Thus R&R argue – Afghanistan economy will not be able to sustain this economically. The funding has to come from US & NATO budgets, which probably will not work because ANSF might have to take actions that foreign taxpayers might find reluctant to fund.

R& R solution : The conditions in the region must be changed so that Afghanistan no longer needs such a large and expensive security force. Changing those conditions mean changing the behavior of actors not only inside but outside the country.

My 2 bit: US has decided to increase the ANSF numbers to 122,000. It flies in the face of the suggested R&R solution. The US feels it is a far cheaper long term option that its own “boots on street” which will cost many billions more and in the face of the economic meltdown – simply unsustainable. There are too many players in Afghanistan and Afghanistan simply does not have the luxury of time to wait out the R&R option of “conditions in the region must be changed”. Afghanistan will have to be internally strong to thwart designs from any / all of these actors that are detrimental to its national interests. Assuming for a moment that R&R&Co. manage to change the conditions TODAY conducive for a small Afghan force, can R&R&Co guarantee that these "conducive conditions" will be frozen ad infinitum. Realistically, conditions change and evolve over time - and in an adverse climate in future, Afghanistan will find itself hostage and vulnerable with its small force. Reducing forces as R&R suggest – will be disastrous for Afghanistan.

R&R state : The Pakistani military does not control the insurgency, but it can affect its intensity. Pakistan kept this area deliberately under developed and over armed as a barrier against invaders and also to conduct asymmetric warfare in both Afghanistan and Kashmir. Pakistan’s military command wants to incorporate Kashmir into Pakistan and considers Afghanistan as within Pakistan’s security parameter. Pakistan does not have a border agreement with Afghanistan, which has never recognized the Durand Line. This strategy for external security has undermined its internal security.

R&R solution: Integrate FATA into Pakistan as one of its provinces.

My 2 bit: DURAND Line was a border imposed ON the Afghans by the British Empire in 1983 to mark the frontier between British India and Afghanistan. This ARBITRARY line through the mountains had purposefully divided the Pushtun population of the region. It was agreed at that time that, on the HONG KONG model, after 100 years all of what became the North West Frontier Province (NWFP which incl FATA) would REVERT TO AFGHANISTAN. Hence R&R what you are stating is just the reverse and would help Pakistan but not Afghanistan, and you are going against a historical pledge to right a wrong.

R&R state: Unless the decision makers in Pakistan decide to make stabilizing the Afghan government a higher priority than countering the Indian threat, the insurgency conducted from bases in Pakistan will continue. The Pakistani security establishment believes it faces both a US-Indian-Afghan alliance and a separate Iranian – Russian alliance, each aimed at undermining Pakistani influence in Afghanistan and even dismembering the Pakistani state. Pakistan’s strategic goals in Afghanistan place Pakistan at odds not just with Afghanistan and India, and with US objectives in the region, but with the ENTIRE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY.

R&R solution: Do not place Pakistan in a revised “axis of evil”. The international community should genuinely assuage legitimate sources of Pakistan’s insecurity while increasing the opposition to its disruptive actions. Pressurizing or giving aid to Pakistan, without any effort to address the source of its insecurity, cannot yield a sustainable positive outcome. China, being the largest investor in both Pakistan and Afghanistan, should play an increasingly significant role as should Saudi Arabia being the former supporter of Taliban and custodian of the two holiest Islamic shrines.

My 2 bit: China and S. Arabia are more Pakistan’s friends than Afghanistan’s. It was the erstwhile princes of S. Arabia that used to come to Afghanistan for “gaming” under Taliban patronage riding rough shod over the local Afghan population. R&R prescribes that Pakistan should be forgiven for its past sins, overlooked and pardoned and then compensated by integrating NWPF for its evil acts. Looks like R&R –your heart and mind are set with Pakistan while paying lip service to Afghanistan.

Short term – Long term solutions:
R&R state: US & Global objectives would require to acknowledge two distinctions:

1. Between ultimate goals and reasons to fight a war (eg: Preventing Al Qaeda from re-grouping – justifies war)
2. Among the time frames for different objectives (eg: strengthening the state & economy of Afghanistan – does not justify war.)

This medium to long term objective would require reducing the intensity of armed conflict, including by seeking a political settlement with current insurgents.
Therefore goals before international community:

1. Do they want to guarantee that Afghanistan’s territory will not be used to attack them?
2. Do they want to impose a particular government in Kabul?
3. Do they want to use the conflict to establish permanent bases in Kabul?

My 2 bit: Withdrawal of foreign troops are linked to number one above – but R&R do not say who will be providing the “guarantee” that the soil of Afghanistan will not be used for terrorism. By past history, only one country comes to mind and that is PAKSITAN.

R&R state that the Pakistani security forces lack the numbers, skills, equipments and motivation to confront the growing insurgencies in the two countries (Pakistan & Afghanistan) or to uproot Al Qaeda from its new base in FATA.

Dear R&R, in that case why are you both having selective amnesia and forgetting that Pakistan took $11 billion from US to buy hardware to fight the terrorists in FATA and Pakistan has blown up this money mostly into buying hardware that will help them militarily against INDIA and not against these forces in SWAT.

Can we trust Pakistan? The answer is NO. Be it Nuclear Wal – Mart, or jehad factory, the duplicity of Pakistan has been laid bare.

R&R state that US should make discussions credible by speaking with Islamists who have national objectives (as against Al Qaeda who have international objectives).
Dear R&R: Is there any distinction between Al Qaeda and Taliban anymore? Is Lashkar e Jahngvi an arm of Al Qaeda? Is Haqqani or Hekmatyar better than Mehsud – depends on which country you represent?

For the distinction between Taliban, the distinction between Taliban and Pakistan army has eroded. Zia’s Islamisation of Army and state has come to a full circle. Forget the fact that Pakistani army regulars were fighting side by side the Taliban before the “life-saving” evacuation at Kunduz. Two recent incidents:

1. After the Kargil cease fire, the Indians had informed their Pakistani counterparts that one of the peaks in Kargil – Drass was occupied by Pakistani soldiers contrary to the terms of cease fire agreement. A senior officer investigated and ordered the Captain in charge of the peak to return to the Pakistan side of line of control. The Captain accused his senior officer and the military high command of betraying the Islamist cause and shot the Senior Officer dead. The Islamist officer was finally disarmed, tried by a secret court martial and executed.

2. British officials covered up evidence that a Taliban commander killed by special forces in Helmand in 2007 was in fact a Pakistani military officer. The commander, targeted in a compound in the Sangin valley, was one of six killed in the past year by SAS and SBS forces. When the British soldiers entered the compound they discovered a Pakistani military ID on the body.

Pakistan army gives daily cover fire to infiltrate insurgents across to Afghanistan and to Kashmir, which actually led to a US retaliatory raid on Pakistan post killing 11 soldiers.

Dear R&R – these are not isolated incidents. The Talibanisation is not only the Pakistani army apparatus, it has seeped into general life too. Its cricket team has vociferous members of Tableeghi Jamaat (Inzamam Ul Haq, Md Yousuf and Mushtaq Ahmed – just to draw attention to the glamour world too). Recently, Hanif Md., author of the brilliant "A Case of Exploding Mangoes", left his self imposed exile in London and came back to Karachi, only to find nearly all the beautiful villas lining the Defence area going vacant. The original landowners are fleeing a more "Talibanised" Pakistan and are moving lock, stock and barrel to Dubai, London, Toronto make a decent living and providing their children a better future.

R&R – that Afghanistan possesses 5 million cell phones and as a nation incomparably stronger than it was 7 years ago does not make it a blank cheque on whose body the Taliban can come again, rape women and burn girl’s school and regress it back to stone ages. Afghanistan is in the dark ages, as it is today.

Please do not prescribe a pill that is ONLY good for Pakistan to digest and cause serious angst all around. Forget India, the serious concerns of Iran and Russia have not even been discussed. Note that - the prime benefactors of ANTI-TALIBAN forces in Afghanistan i.e. The NORTHERN ALLIANCE were : IRAN, INDIA & RUSSIA.

RUSSIA: At a press conference in the UN headquarters, Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov alleged that in a spirit of "prejudiced bias", the US was blocking the Moscow-led Collective Security Treaty Organization from helping to stabilize Afghanistan. Indeed, cracks are appearing in the US-Russia understanding over the anti-terrorism campaign in Afghanistan. A turf war is ensuing - Washington is determined to exclude Russia from Afghanistan and Moscow insisting on its legitimate role.

IRAN: Tehran has invited former Afghan president Burhanuddin Rabbani, who led the anti-Taliban coalition (Northern Alliance) in the 1990s to visit Iran. Iran has curiously propped up Alaeddin Broujerdi - the principal designer and architect of the Northern Alliance and a key strategist of the anti-Taliban resistance in the 1996-98 period. Iran has dropped hints and more: If US is planning to bring any form of Taliban rule into Afghanistan, IRAN will unleash its contacts in Northern Alliance as counter.

Dr. Rubin, recently came out with an interesting article :The US & IRAN in Afghanistan: Policy Gone Awry - a must read.

Anonymous said...

From Mr Rubin and Mr Rashid's report

"More aid to Pakistan -- military or civilian -- will not diminish the perception among Pakistan's national security elite that the country is surrounded by enemies determined to dismember it, especially as cross-border raids into areas long claimed by Afghanistan intensify that perception. Until that sense of siege is gone, it will be difficult to strengthen civilian institutions in Pakistan."

Yeah right. Mr. Rashid will confirm that the Muslim elite who went on to create Pakistan declared themselves and Islam to be under seige back in 1937. Since their their precious 'sense of seige' has proved to be their bread and butter for 70 years and their excuse NOT to strengthen democratic institutions in all these decades. You want to take that away from them? The price which Pakistani rulers demand from the world and their neighbouring regions to rid themselves of their 'sense of seige' has merely gotten higher and higher since 1937.

This is what B R Ambedkar, later the architect of independent India's constitution wrote in the early 1940s in his book 'Pakistan or the Partition of India':

All I would like to say in this connection is that the Hindus before determining their attitude towards this question[of Pakistan] should note certain important considerations.

In particular they should note that there is a difference between Macht Politic [Power politics] and Gravamin Politic[in which the main strategy is to gain power by manufacturing grievances.] ; that there is a difference between Communitas Communitatum and a nation of nations; that there is a difference between safeguards to allay apprehensions of the weak and contrivances to satisfy the ambition for power of the strong: that there is a difference between providing safeguards and handing over the country.

Further, they should also note that what may with safety be conceded to Gravamin Politic may not be conceded to Macht Politic. What may be conceded with safety to a community may not be conceded to a nation and what may be conceded with safety to the weak to be used by it as a weapon of defence may not be conceded to the strong who may use it as a weapon of attack.

It seems to me that the Congress has failed to realize two things. The first thing which the Congress has failed to realize is that there is a difference between appeasement and settlement, and that the difference is an essential one. Appeasement means buying off the aggressor by conniving at his acts of murder, rape, arson and loot against innocent persons who happen for the moment to be the victims of his displeasure.

On the other hand, settlement means laying down the bounds which neither party to it can transgress. Appeasement sets no limits to the demands and aspirations of the aggressor. Settlement does.

The second thing the Congress has failed to realize is that the policy of concession has increased Muslim aggressiveness, and what is worse, Muslims interpret these concessions as a sign of defeatism on the part of the Hindus and the absence of the will to resist.

This policy of appeasement will involve the Hindus in the same fearful situation in which the Allies found themselves as a result of the policy of appeasement which they adopted towards Hitler. This is another malaise, no less acute than the malaise of social stagnation. Appeasement will surely aggravate it. The only remedy for it is a settlement.

If Pakistan is a settlement, it is a proposition worth consideration. As a settlement it will do away with this constant need of appeasement and ought to be welcomed by all those who prefer the peace and tranquillity of a settlement to the insecurity due to the growing political appetite shown by the Muslims in their dealings with the Hindus.

These are important considerations and, if the Hindus overlook them, they will do so at their peril.
(end quotes from B R Ambedkar)

On the eve of Partition, this is a conversation cited in the Transfer of Power 1942-7, Vol. VIII, Eds Nicholas Mansergh and P. Moon.

A little before he was sacked in early 1947, N.P.A. Smith, the powerful director of the Intelligence Bureau, submitted a note to [Viceroy of India] Wavell..." I told him[Sardar Patel]...that any attempt to force the Muslim would result, through the disintegration of the police and Army in the loss of NW India. His reply was that, if I thought that generosity would placate the Muslim Oliver Twist, I did not understand either the Muslim mind or the situation. With which statement I am tempted to agree..."
(end quote from TOP, Vol. VIII)

If the fundamental premise of the Rubin-Rashid recommendation is buy peace and security by seeking to rid Pakistani rulers of their'sense of seige', then you can keep trying for the next hundred years and only failure will result.

It is easier to destroy India or get rid of its Hindu majority(how about nuclear war or mass conversions to Islam?) so that poor poor Pakistanis' 'sense of seige' can finally take a rest and they finally can stop supporting narcotics militias who burn girls schools, behead dissenters and call it Islam.

Anonymous said...

A post script to my previous post - the Great Game has never been 'fun' for anyone except the Pakistani elite and their Western drinking buddies - the Great Game has meant death to thousands and hundreds of thousands if not millions of less privileged innocents in the region at every turn of the chakkar.

Each time the West panders to the Pakistani elite in the name of the Great Game, millions end up dead and Pakistani elite ends up richer by millions, with hundreds if not thousands of acres of more land in each one's name, a fatter foreign bank balance, a more ironclad grip over their hapless subjects and of course their 'sense of seige' intact to scam the West yet again in the future.

Whenever the West pandered to the Pakistani elite's sense of seige, first a million odd Punjabis died, in 1947, then a million odd East Bengalis died in 1971 and ultimately a million odd Afghans, if not more have been killed since in the two decades since the Soviets left.

Far from accepting or assigning any responsibility for these millions of deaths and prolonged conflict fueled by Pakistani rulers, the West seeks to continue to pander to Pakistani elite and to continue to justify the violence this ruling elite perpetrates on unarmed innocents in the name of 'insecurity'.

What the West must understand is that it(the West) is becoming more and more complicit in these close to genocidal acts and in the continuing irresponsible attitude of the Pakistan elite about their sins of omission towards their own 'subjects'(ordinary Pakistanis can be called nothing else) and their sins of commission against the region.

It is disappointing that the two authors whom I consider have done the most to honestly and bravely document these acts of commission by Pakistani strategic elite have been taken in enough by the said elites' smooth talk and 'sweet reasonableness' into rationalising them.

For instance, the Taliban, Afghan or Pakistan, or the Pak Army will not give up their links to Al Qaeda or global jihadi groups, because they can't. Jihadis don't magically transform into 'secular' or 'political' or 'nationalist' activists because America decreess they can only attack Indians and Afghan Shias, Uzbeks and Tajiks, jihadis still remain Al Qaeda fellow travellers deriving funding from Sunni Wahabis, and ideological justification from whatever Islamist mishmash the Pak govt allows its school system and religious madrassas to propagate.

Offering to give up links with Al Qaeda does not translate into actually doing so, because those offering know that the West cannot enforce any agreement on them to give up links to Al Qaeda.

What is needed is a combined top-down and bottom-up approach in Afghanistan on the ground not an elite compromise in some foreign city(which will never ever be sustainable as long as Pakistani top brass is part of it, as history in the last 20 years is witness).

The Afghan government and the West must win over Taliban fighters at the grassroots, and then take that strength of support with them to the puppet-masters in Pakistan to COERCE them to compromise.

Begging for compromise which you cannot impose by your own strengths will never work, and will only be taken as weakness. Working at reform and rehabilitiation of Taliban fighters from village to village, district to district, region to region is hard hard work, but will be the only durable solution. Anything else(such as taking the Pakistani military or Mullah Omar or Haqqani or Hekmatyar's words for anything) will be just yet another unenforceable military-political compromise (of which Afghanistan has seen dozens), which will collapse on the whims of any single party.


Ah... anonymous above. Brilliant.

Anonymous said...

Thanks, bengal under attack.

The formulation of 'Pakistan is the homeland for South Asia's Muslims' is also wishful thinking.

Until India's 150 million Muslims move to Pakistan, India will not accept Pakistan as the homeland of South Asia's Muslims. Since India's 150 million Muslims will never move to Pakistan, the above is a useless formulation in India-Pakistan relations. It is rather disconcerting if the authors of this report are unconscious this and if they geniunely want a break with the past, for the sake of a workable future they can't afford to be so.

Anonymous said...


Out of the other ethnicities, the Baloch people have suffered the most under an administration dominated by Punjabis.

The region of Balochistan is mostly waste land covered by deserts and uncultivable land. However this area is also rich in mineral reserves such as natural gas and petroleum.

In fact, 90% of Pakistan’s energy requirements are met by the natural reserves of the province of Balochistan.

But the irony is that this province does not even get 5% of the electricity produced from the land in this region. So much for Islamic/Pakistani brotherhood!

The per capita income of Balochistan is next to zilch when compared to Punjab.

Balochistan has hardly any schools or colleges except in the capital city of Quetta. The Baloch people have to travel great distances even to get basic necessities such as water and food supplies.
There are hardly any roads or major railway links in Balochistan. Most Baloch people have to work as migrant labourers in the more developed cities of Karachi and Islamabad.

The Pakistani Army rape women and young girls, kill non-combatants; in general terms, they spread misery amongst the Baloch population.

It is not as if the Civil or Military Administration is unaware of these facts. On the other hand, the Administration fully supports these cruel techniques used by the Pakistani Army to subdue the Baloch.

This is actually a return gift from the Pakistani Administration for the audacity of asking for the basic human rights by the Baloch.

There are no technical institutions where people from Balochistan can pursue education, which would enable them to achieve a respectable status. All the work in the various military or civilians are assigned to non-local labour.

This is not done because the Baloch people are lazy or unable to do work. Rather this is being done to add to the depravity of the already suffering people of Balochistan.

The Baloch people who are not so religious, but are however fiercely independent in spirit were ultimately fed up with the Punjabi-led administration decided to rebel against it.

Even though there is a long history of rebellion of the Baloch people against the evil Pakistani Administration, I will confine myself to a recent event that has become epoch in the history of Balochistan.

I will tell you the short story of Nawab Akbar Bughti. He was a man who once believed in the nation of Pakistan and even occupied several important positions in the Pakistani administration unlike most of his Baloch brothers who were not so lucky.

When he came back to his native place, he was really appalled to see the barbarity with which the Pakistani army treated the Baloch people. He could no longer tolerate the injustice and decided to fight the oppression.

He fought, to secure basic Human rights for his people. The Pakistani Administration decided that this impudent Baloch, who had the guts to ask for equal rights, should also be given a return gift. He was bombed in his house, which was actually a cave, in the middle of night.

This was a warning for the rest of the Baloch people to shut up or suffer similar consequences.

This is just the tip of the iceberg. Now the Pakistani administration has found a new way of subduing the Baloch. They have started colonising the Baloch land in bits and pieces to establish colonies of Punjabi ex-army men in order to destabilize the ethnic balance of the area.

To add to the woes of the Baloch, Afghan refugees have also been provided habitations in the Baloch land. This was hardly done out of compassion for the refugees, why not house them in Punjab?

The real reason was to turn the native population of Balochistan into minorities. This way, they are being gradually subdued with ease.

While the Western Media chooses to cherry pick the events in Pakistan, we seldom get to hear the moans and cries of these unfortunate people, caught between the devil and the deep blue sea.

As I write this article, there might be a Baloch woman being molested by the Army of Pakistan, a child being beaten up for being who he is.

Nobody will ever be able to assess the exact extent of the atrocities the Pakistani Administration has committed upon the Baloch people.

I really don’t understand why the media of the free world chooses to ignore a Human tragedy which occurs everyday in a country as well known as Pakistan.

I also wonder why the Western leaders don’t ask the Pakistani administration as to why these people are suffering so much even after the billions of dollars in Aid.

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