Monday, July 7, 2008

Rubin: Attack on Indian Embassy in Kabul (Multiple Updates)

After the attack on the Indian Embassy in Kabul this morning, I wrote the following comment in response to a query from a journalist:
The war in Afghanistan is often depicted as a battle between jihadi groups and the U.S. or the west. But Afghanistan is also a theater for the struggle between India and Pakistan and for the domestic struggles of Pakistan. This is the second major terrorist attack on an Indian target since the election of a civilian government in Pakistan. Nine synchronized bombs killed 63 people in the Indian city of Jaipur on May 13, just before the first high-level diplomatic meeting between India and Pakistan after the elections. Part of the context of this attack is also the Afghan official, public charges that the Pakistani intelligence agency, ISI, organized the attempted assassination of President Karzai in Kabul in April. These attacks seem designed to sabotage any improvement of relations between Pakistan and either of its two neighbors, India and Afghanistan, to assure that Pakistan has no alternative but to continue to support militant organizations as part of its foreign policy.
I might add that there is also a consistent pattern of attacks on Indian road construction teams in southwest Afghanistan. These teams are constructing a road linking Afghanistan to the Persian Gulf via the Iranian rail and road network, which would bypass both Karachi and Pakistan's new port in Gwadar. This road also passes through the Baluch parts of Afghanistan and Iran, next to the Pakistani province of Baluchistan, where Pakistan charges India with supporting nationalist/separatist insurgents.

Juan Cole on Informed Comment links the bombing to the attack yesterday in Islamabad and posits:
Since the neo-Taliban want to pull down the Karzai government, trying to scare the Indians into leaving would be a way of removing one foreign pillar of support from the edifice of state.
The link to the Islamabad attack on the anniversary of the raid on the Red Mosque may well be valid, but, along with the pattern I cited above, it looks to me more like it forms a pattern of a regional strategy by those who want to place (or keep) the state in Pakistani in the jihadi camp. In addition, in my (admittedly limited) contact with Taliban and in examining Taliban texts from Afghan sources, I see a focus on foreign troops in Afghanistan, not the Karzai government or India.

I heard on the radio that "Taliban" have claimed responsibility for this act. (Also reported by Reuters.) Let's see which "Taliban." Did it come from the former Taliban leadership in Quetta, or did it come from the Haqqani group in North Waziristan? (Note that both command and control centers of the Taliban are in Pakistan.) The latter is campaigning for predominance -- last week a document surfaced in which Jalaluddin Haqqani charged Mullah Umar and the Quetta shura with incompetence. (The authenticity of this document has yet to be established -- facsimile above left from here. [UPDATE 1: A source in Kabul who has been investigating it tells me the document is mostly likely a fake. Psy-ops, I guess.]) Kabul is also focusing its accusations of terrorism on the Haqqani group, which it claims reports daily to the ISI and which has much closer links to al-Qaida and the Pakistani Taliban than does the Quetta shura.

UPDATE 2: Now I heard on NPR that the "Taliban" have denied responsibility. Let me stick my neck out here: I don't believe that the Kandahari Taliban leadership would mount an attack like this against the Indian embassy. The idea of such an attack came from some combination of all or some of the following: the Haqqani group (as part of a campaign for Pakistani support), Pakistani Taliban, al-Qaida, and the Pakistani security agencies, or private entities under their supervision.

Reuters: The Afghan "Interior Ministry believes this attack was carried out in coordination and consultation with an active intelligence service in the region," that is, Pakistan's ISI.

Taliban (Quetta shura) spokesman denies responsibility:

Still, a Taliban spokesman, Zabiullah Mujahid, denied that the militants were behind the bombing. The Taliban tend to claim responsibility for attacks that inflict heavy tolls on international or Afghan troops, and deny responsibility for attacks that primarily kill Afghan civilians.

"Whenever we do a suicide attack, we confirm it," Mujahid said. "The Taliban did not do this one."

Pakistan Foreign Minister Makhdoom Shah Mahmood Qureshi condemned the attack. I heard him on the BBC (I can't find the interview on line yet), and he sounded very sincere and pained by it, almost as if the attack were aimed at his government -- which it might be.

UPDATE 3: According to someone who who spent most of the 1980s with the mujahidin in Afghanistan, even then Jalaluddin Haqqani was saying that the number one enemy was India. I've asked a few people, and so far no one can recall hearing this kind of talk from the core Taliban in Quetta. In my experience, the Kandahari mujahidin resisted Pakistani influence quite strongly.

124 comments:

S.S. Harris said...

Taliban spokesman Zabihullah Mujahed denied involvement ...

Anonymous said...

Dear Mr. Rubin,

It may not be intentional but in your post and previous comments on the alleged Indian influence in Afghanistan, one senses a moral equivalence between what India and Pakistan are doing in Afghanistan.

They are not the same.

What Pakistan has been doing is to use terrorist groups and suicide bombers to force its will on Kabul. While India did support the erstwhile Northern Alliance, it has never used terrorist entities or suicide bombers.

What Pakistan is doing here shows that the country has not fundamentally changed its policy of using terrorists to enforce political objectives - since 9/11.

Asking for India to "moderate" its activities in Afghanistan in this context is essentially a backhanded justification for Pakistan's terrorism policies.

I hope that was not your intention.

Sincerely,

RT

Anonymous said...

RT

Huh?????

Anonymous said...

Dear Mr. Rubin,

I am perplexed as to what does ISI gain from supporting terrorist groups inside Pakistan? It is not hard to imagine what the purpose is in regards to Afghanistan, but I can't square up when it comes to supporting terrorism in Pakistan.

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To Anonymous who wonders why ISI supports terrorists:

Your question shows how the mainstream media has kept people utterly uninformed about the background to the so-called "War on Terror" and the Afghanistan situation before and after 9/11. I won't go into it so you'll have to search the internet for whatever facts you can find. I will just say that the ISI (and Saudi Intelligence) have been involved with terrorist for some time as have elements of the U.S. intelligence apparatus. The ISI has always seen Afghanistan as "theirs" and wanted to stop Russian and Indian inroads. You might find that in several encounters between Al-qaeda/Taliban troops particularly Tora-Bora the leadership were *all* (including Bin Laden) allowed to escape while U.S. forces refused to close of escape routes (the official explanation was that it was a "blunder") into Pakistan.

Put is more simply: what is reported in the U.S. media about Iraq and Afghanistan is, for the most part, totally false and deliberately misleading with the exception of a few honest reporters. As Lara Logan famously said, to paraphrase, "if I had to watch what you watch in the United States on the news, I'd blow my brains out".

Start from zero and do your own research and remember to follow the money and qui bono.

Anonymous said...

It might sound crazy and conspiratorial; yet in the murky world of today's Great Game, one should not fully rule out the follwoing senario: With the news of U.S. Special Forces entering Iran via Afghanistan and engaging in sabotage activities there, it would make sense for the Iranian Mullahs to sponsor a spectacular terrorist attack (such as the Indian embassy bombing)in Afghanistan. The benefits of such an act for Iran would be multifold:

1)Destabilizing Afghanistan and creating further problems for the U.S. in that country damages the U.S./NATO credibility. Every terrorist attack in Afghanistan is used (by Iran) as an evidence of U.S./NATO incompetence and inability to restore peace (and do something good)in Afghanistan. The more attacks happen in Afghanistan, the stronger becomes the Iranian claim that the main source of instability in the region is the presence of U.S. forces.

2) By instigating the Inian Embassy attack, Iran could also help strengthen the Northern Alliance's claims regarding the incompetence of the Karzai government to deal with Afghanistan's problems. The less secure Afghanistan becomes until next year's presidential elections, the less support will be available (doemstically and internationally) for Karzai to win another term. And the alternative to Karzai would be a more friendly figure to Iran (someone from or close to the Northern Alliance).

3) By helping launch such a terrorist attack, Iran could further benefit by keeping the U.S. miliarily and diplomatically bogged down in Afghanistan, thus reducing the poptential for a U.S. attack on its own soil. More instability in neighboting Afghanistan under U.S. tutelage, scares off the Iranian public and wins more Iranian public support for the Mullahs (the rallying-around-the-flag effect).

4) A terrosit attack against Indian interests in Afghanistan (that is automatically put at the door of Islamabad because of the well-known Pak-India animosity), further worsens Afghan-Pak relations, something that is of high diplomatic/economic value for Iran (Afghan-Pak alienation means more Iranian influence in Kabul).

It is noteworthy that it is not only Iran that could benefit from the Indian embassy attack; Russia can also receive similar, second-hand advantages from this attack through inflicting damage on the U.S./NATO credibility, and strengthening the hands of her own proxies within Afghanistan and its administration.

So the question: Was it trully Pakistani (official or unofficial) elements that caused the embassy attack? Or was it Iranian or Russian elements, or someone else's? GOD KNOWS BETTER!

These comments, as mentioned at the beggining, soud as far-fetched imaginations. But in a world filled with proxy wars, where intillegence officers take the place of diplomats and politicians, it is exactly such fancy imaginations that become reality, abliet at high cost of national raport and human life.

Banger said...

As for Iranian involvement, of course it is possible but I don't think this is the game they are playing. My impression is the Iranians are trying to show the Americans that they can be a cooperative ally (they don't want to be in a war with the U.S.--there's nothing in their recent history that indicates any interest in aggressive war--everything they do is largely defensive) or a troublesome foe. They are playing a little tit for tat not making big explosions.

Also, there is little evidence that they have enough infrastructure in Kabul to make that kind of attack. My guess is that it is the work of a segment of the ISI that is seeking to undermine any kind of possible rapproachment with India. The big game in South Asia is not Afghanistan but India/Pakistan. In the long term a lasting peace with India would be anathama to the radical Islamists within the Pakistani military and ISI. Pakistan, is a very fragmented and factionalized country and becoming more so. Tension with India maintains certain militarists in power. Again, follow the money.

There is no real reason for Iran to meddle in a very aggressive way in Afghanistan--only to be seen as a "menace" lingering on the horizon and making alliances where they can. Radical terrorist actions would not serve Iran as far as I can see.

Barnett R. Rubin said...

The Iran scenario is ridiculous. In all cases like this there is lots and lots of evidence leading back to Pakistan -- phone records for instance. That doesn't provide any proof of official involvement: by Pakistan I am referring to a location not a government (though some of the phone numbers involved do point to official involvement). The Afghans may not have proof that the ISI or Pakistan government carried this or other attacks out, but there are tons of forensic evidence that the planning and implementation took place in Pakistan. I don't think that even the Government of Pakistan disputes that.
So far no one has charged the Indians with blowing up their own embassy in order to embarrass Pakistan. I wonder how long it will be before that charge surfaces...

Anonymous said...

As one with a ring-side seat (I was less than a mile away from the Embassy bombing), I would have to agree that the Iranian conspiracy theory is far-fetched. Far more likely that a group such as Hesb-e-Islami Gulbuddin, which appears to be trying to encircle Kabul, to the west and south east, are involved. If one looks at the incidents that occur daily, but don't make the splash that the Embassy bombing did, there is a distinct pattern to the activity. It is important to use this pattern (and others) to understand the context within which the Embassy bombing took place, and not to view it in isolation.
Thanks Barney for your perspective!

Jay said...

Mr. Rubin;
I thank you for your wise insights. There is no other nation whose survival depends on fighting and killing other innocent people than Pakistan.
In order for them to survive; they always put the blame of Al Qaeda and suicide bombers on Afghanistan. It is them that are creating terror around the globe and exporting suicide bombers everywhere. They use young kids to kill others for their purposes via their extremist religious leaders and yet take billions of my and your tax payer's money on yearly basis.
I hope that Israel attacks pakistan instead of Iran to truly eradicate terror from the world as well as let poor Afghans build their country and live freely.

ANJAN SENGUPTA said...

Dear Dr Rubin,

Interesting that you did stick your neck out and stated that Kandahari Taliban were not involved. Anyone in Kabul will tell you, that the locals (whether Talib or not) were not involved. Hence, it was foreigners. One blogger alluded to Iran - while it may be far fetched - in the current scenario of winner takes all, false flags etc, it was an interesting analysis.
However, it is the ISI or elements cultivated by ISI that seem the most likely culprits. Yes, you observed correctly, that there has been a step up of attacks on INDIAN interests, be it border roads etc. And electronic clutter picked up by Indian intelligence already alerted the mission for a possible attack - herein lies the fault of Indians where counter intelligence operations were either not present or misused for the attack to take place.
People in ISI say that there are 2 ISIs - personally I think this is hogwash. It is to separate the black ops from the regular ops. Notice 3 things on ISI:

1. When 9/11 took place, the then ISI head was in Washington. He was soon replaced after being seen as too close to the Talibans. Word is that he was in US specifically to see terror in the eyes of the "infidels" when terror struck. The money wiring to Md Atta, Daniel Pearl killer Omar Sayeed being a trusted ISI agent is a reality. Yet people beleive that sitting in a cave, Osama pulled off 9/11 logistics. WAKE UP !!!

2. All major terrorist attacks (80%) in the globe in the past 15 years, has a Pakistani stamp. Either training, or schooling or finances or a combination. And the vice grip that ISI holds on these, is well documented.

3. The third aspect is cozying up of CIA and ISI in the Afghanistan opium trade, that gives ISI certain advantages and long arm in dealing with "turf" issues. CIA bankrolls its black ops through profits from these (one can see the movie AMERICAN GANSTER to realize that military can even transport drugs into mainland US). Hence everytime US soldiers get bumped off in Afghanistan, the Pakistan Army makes a hashed attempt to attack Taliban in N Waziristan, often giving up the chase and coming back defeated, tied up or just deserting or a PEACE DEAL !!

It is the ISI looking for strategic depth. Catch the man called HAMID GUL (ex ISI chief) - he still has stories to tell !!

Cheers !

Barnett R. Rubin said...

I will defend Hamid Gul. I met him in Pakistan and he is not an active terrorist mastermind. He overslept and almost missed our meeting. Then he tried to organize a demonstration against Musharraf's state of emergency, failed to do so, and then got arrested. You must look elsewhere for culprits.

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Dr Rubin,

I did not mean Hamid Gul as a terrorist mastermind, only that he has stories to tell. He does come across as someone with more knowledge than he even cares to share with his shadow. His pillows may or may not have been bugged by Mushrraf, but that he poses a serious threat to the establishment is well known. I would like to know more on three players - 1. Gulbuddin Hekmatyar 2. Dr AQ Khan and 3. Bashiruddin Mehmood, Chaudhry Majid, Suleiman Assad and Mohammad Mukhtar . On Dr A Q Khan, maybe you could write a piece on fact / fiction of Pakistani state involvement on the nuclear ploriferation issue. On the 4 nuclear scientists in named in point 3, all were alleged to pass on nuclear "plans" to the Taliban in Afghanistan and now in hiding in Burma. What is your take on this?
On a trip to Bangladesh, I met a Bangladeshi working on Chinese power project. He had drunk quite a bit and said a thing which was leading and probably he wanted a reaction from me and did not get any. He stated that there were granite mines in Bangladesh and a large contingent of North Koreans were working deep in those mines. They travelled a lot to Burma from there. And then he asked me, can you think of any reason what the North Koreans could be doing there? I said I do not know and do not care. Assuming that this is true, which I very much doubt, what could be your take?

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Anonymous said...

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For you to even hint that the Indian establishment has resorted in kind to Pakistan's continuous exportation of terrorism in its most brutal forms shows why the US still hasn't got things right. You are amongst the innumerable 'foreign affairs experts' who gloat half the time over a post comprising of (if I may borrow a term) the intellectual capacity of a rotten potato. You are never able to analyse anything in time. All you do is analyse something after it happens. For you to press such ludicrous charges is to say the least, indicative of your desperation for writing some posts which as I mentioned are devoid of any logic. It's been 20 years since the ISI started this proxy war and justifying their sins everytime by blaming the victim is akin to blaming the rape victim for agitating the rapist. Now, if you do truly think that Pakistan's targets have resorted in kind then you over-estimate the resilience of Pakistan as a nation state. And using the same 'logic' you use you use to conjure up such stories..... one can say that the holocaust never happened.

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