Thursday, April 10, 2008

Rubin: Afghanistan Insurgent Attacks up in 2008

I received the charts below from Sami Kovanen, a Finnish security specialist in Kabul.

The first compares the total number of "security incidents" originated by Taliban/anti-government elements (TB/AGE) in Afghanistan for the first 13 weeks of 2008 compared to the first 13 weeks of 2007:

The second chart compares the total number of incidents during these 13 weeks in both years, broken down by region (Central Highlands, Eastern Region, Southeast Region, Southern Region, Western Region, Northeast Region, Northern Region, and Central Region).

Incidents in 2008 are almost 40 percent more numerous than in 2007. Except for the Central Highlands Region, where the number of incidents is negligible, the largest proportionate increase is in the Central Region, which includes Kabul, Wardak, Logar, and Parwan, where incidents have increased by 70 percent. I have been told that incidents in Wardak have declined recently, since a commander of Hizb-i Islami was appointed as police chief, and he hired all of his old mujahidin. Further details or corrections welcome.

No last throes yet.


Anonymous said...

We need to leave Iraq and Afghanistan. We won't, I fear, no matter who is President. Darn.

Aziz said...

please leave afghanistan and let afghans decide independently and stand on their own. I and All in afghanistan believe that Americans, British and others are not here to serve Afghans but just to pursue their personal targets. We are daily witnessing scenes indicating Americans' hypocracy; Afghan soldiers arrest taliban and unfortuntely they are taken to American military bases. Americans free them as soon as afghans are not having eyes on them. Please either leave our country or be sincere and do what you say.

Barnett R. Rubin said...

Aziz, Can you clarify? Are you implying that the US is secretly supporting the Taliban? I know a lot of people believe this, because of US relations with Pakistan.

Anonymous said...

What is lacking in Afghanistan is integrity in mission, unity in approach to taking over the Taliban militants. With the insurgency surged, we come to realize that the invasion or mission of Afghanistan was designed to just let Taliban retreat for two to three years and then make strong comeback, which we witness nowadays. Lack of no effective response makes us more than sure to say that there is a furtive support for the Taliban and the US and its partners pursue their own interests and goals by letting Afghanistan bleed. Ali

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Holly said...

We are fighting for peace with guns... According to some publications at it is really so and the peace becomes only a lame excuse...

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