Farideh Farhi
Something interesting happened in Iran yesterday that some, particularly outside of Iran, are interpreting as a serious political blow to Ahmadinejad. I am not sure whether it should be considered a serious blow or more of an election maneuver on the part of the current speaker of the parliament speaker, Gholamali Haddad Adel, trying to improve his standing among his conservative colleagues who have to decide soon who should lead their list of candidates for the next session of the parliament or his Tehrani constituency who will have to make a decision soon about whether or not he should be re-elected.
The story goes something like this. Apparently some time in the past week or so Mahmoud Ahmadinejad sent a letter to the speaker complaining about parliamentary legislation passed which mandate policies that, from his point of view, clearly infringe upon the prerogatives of the executive branch. Calling these legislations - which included retuning to daylight savings time after Ahmadinejad had rashly abandoned it or the law mandating the executive branch to specify budgetary lines for certain allocations – unconstitutional, he asked the speaker to stop these “evident” violations of the constitution. He also said that he would not implement a legislation to supply cheap gas to villages suffering power cuts in an unexpectedly harsh winter because the source of funding was not specified.
But in registering these complaints Ahmadinejad was standing on shaky grounds as the Iranian constitution has a rather clear and peculiar institutional set-up for finding which legislative acts are unconstitutional. The Guardian Council has the task of validating both the Islamic and constitutional nature of legislation (with the Expediency Council as the final arbiter if the parliament and Guardian Council cannot reach an agreement). Regarding the latter, it often sends back legislation it deems unconstitutional on the basis of Article 75 of the constitution which requires specification of compensation or source of funding for any legislation that leads to the reduction of public revenues or increase in public expenditures. By in effect proclaiming the executive branch a constitutional authority and then using that authority to not implement laws that couldn't have become laws unless the Guardian Council had agreed were constitutional, Ahmadinejad is walking on very thin legal reasoning as far as the parameters of the Islamic republic are concerned.
Haddad Adel decided to solve the problem by writing a letter to the leader, who, since the 1989 constitutional revision which significantly expanded the power of his office, is endowed with the responsibility of resolving conflicts among the three branches of the government. Ayatollah Khamenei responded immediately in a short, terse note, stating "All legal legislation that has gone through [the required] procedures stipulated in the constitution is binding for all branches of power."
Receiving the response, Haddad Adel immediately released all the relevant written exchanges, making a point that the leader had taken the side of the parliament.
As I mentioned above, some outsiders, perhaps looking for individual conflicts at the top as the explanation for why things happen in Iran they way they do (a sort of Kremlinology, if you will, applied to Iran) and trying to extract what these conflicts indicate about the direction of Iranian politics, saw this intervention as the “latest in a series of recent signals that Khamenei is losing patience with a president to whom he once showed staunch loyalty.”
In Iran, though, the commentary was much more skeptical and focused not on Khamenei’s action but Haddad Adel’s. Why did he publicize this? Why did he do it now? To some the move was a good one but rather late. After all, as one current reformist deputy put it, Ahmadinejad has repeatedly violated legislative authority on financial matters by making promises of major projects in his numerous provincial trips without going through the required funding process in the parliament. Even more problematic the parliamentary leadership had said nothing despite repeated complaints by various deputies.
A couple of conservative deputies, frustrated by the parliamentary leadership’s passivity, were more brutal, pointing out that Ahmadinejad’s unilateral moves had undermined and weakened the institution of the parliament which instead of “being behind the government was more held in its fist.” This is why to them what Haddad Adel did seemed more like a “propaganda move” to hide the lowering of the status or weakening of the parliament that had occurred under Haddad Adel’s own leadership.
Etemad newspaper saw the move less in terms of shaping public opinion and more as part and parcel of an attempt to force the conservative coalition to place Haddad Adel on top of its list of candidates for the city of Tehran, enhancing his chance of re-election but also for becoming a speaker again. This was more than anything else “a message about Haddad Adel’s spiritual influence and current position in the Islamic republic and that because of this influence the conservative leadership has no other choice but to accept him as the list leader and probably his leadership again in the 8th parliament.” One deputy quoted in the Etemad piece even goes so far as to suggest that the whole thing was a mere personal feud between the two men.
From his point of view, Ahmadinejad had not implemented many legislations in the past and will continue to do the same in the future (indeed even after the leader’s intervention, he went on and insisted that what the parliament was doing was still unconstitutional). His mistake this time around was simply to put his long-held position in writing, giving Haddad Adel an opportunity to capitalize and letting those making decisions about the candidate lists know about his clout and his ability to get the support of those who really matter in Iran.
Accepting Etemad’s version of what happened essentially implies that everyday politics in contemporary Iran, like everywhere else, may simply and merely be interesting, intricate and yes petty, nothing more and nothing less. Trying to read too much into everyday politicking of Iranian politicians interested in securing their position in relation to other politicians is increasingly looking like an over-interpretation intended to fit Iran into a narrative that implicitly or explicitly asks us to think of its politics as different from elsewhere in so far as some fundamental change about power relationships are about to happen.
Strangely despite all the economic problems, external pressures, and even the reality of a president who has antagonized a whole of array of elites in Iran and is deemed both incompetent and rash by many of them, Iran looks pretty settled to me; settled enough for dirty laundry to be washed in public for electoral gains. In any one day, the president can yell constitutional disaster; the speaker of the parliament can make big noises about parliamentary prerogatives; the all powerful leader can intervene presumably for the good cause of parliamentary vigor; commentators can look around for a second, detect manipulation and personal rivalries, note it and then get ready for commentary on the next public drama. Life goes on!
Tuesday, January 22, 2008
A Serious Political Blow to Ahmadinejad or an Election Maneuver?
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Gholamali Haddad Adel,
Iran,
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad
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8 comments:
You are not sure about that it's a blow to Ahmadinejad or not because you are not familiar with different fractions among conservatives in Iran today. If you knew a little bit about Ahmadinejad's relationship with Haddad then you would know how this move is critical. The game of politics among the conservatives (Ossolgarayan) in Iran has its own rules. It has more harm than good for the conservative camp. That's why it shows serious issues between two of them. Everybody who follows the Iranian parliament's changes during the last few months has seen a growing sense of frustration amon MPs. Ahmadinejad's letter was disrespectful and unusual. He basically disrespect Haddad Adel. Haddad could be Iran's president and he, like many conservatives, do not take Ahmadinejad seriously among themselves. So, he responded the president promptly, firmly by asking the Supreme Leader to interfere to show what are the lines that the President should not
pass.
Your analysis perhaps for people who are not familiar with details of the political structure in Iran is readable but has nothing to do with reality and what is going on there. I was disappointed by this poor judgment.
I see you haven't stopped your deceiving and misinformation propaganda. Shame on you. What difference does it really make which fascist make it to presidency or parliamant. They are part and parcel of the same sewege.
Your intellect also leaves a lot to be desired.
Iran Blocks Reformist Candidates
January 23, 2008
BBC News
BBCi
Reformists in Iran says the government has barred thousands of their candidates from standing in forthcoming parliamentary elections. They say nearly 3,000 candidates, almost half of those standing, have been disqualified.
Most are opponents of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.
The government confirmed rejection letters had been sent out to several candidates, but officials did not confirm numbers.
The interior ministry's chief electoral officer said candidates could challenge their disqualification by legal means.
But reformists fear most candidates will not be able to re-enter the fray.
The main vetting process, for thousands of remaining candidates, has not yet been completed.
Committees from the interior ministry have been looking into the backgrounds of the 7,168 hopefuls by gathering information from the police, intelligence and the judiciary.
The reformists' coalition spokesman, Abdollah Naseri, said he was surprised by the numbers disqualified.
The coalition, inspired by former President Mohammad Khatami, is made up of 21 pro-reform groups, including Islamic Iran Participation Front (IIPF) and Islamic Revolution Mojaheddin organisation (IMRO).
One of the main reformist parties said all but seven or eight of its 200 candidates had been barred.
"Conservatives are scared of a reformist victory because of the government's failed economic policies," Mostafa Tajzadeh, a former deputy interior minister, told AFP.
The BBC correspondent in Tehran, John Leyne, says there's been growing criticism of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's handling of domestic policy and that his opponents had been hoping to make gains in the parliamentary elections.
The elections, scheduled for 14 March, are seen as a test of the president's popularity.
Thousands of reformist candidates were disqualified in parliamentary elections in 2004, leading to victory for the conservatives, who took control of the legislature.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/middle_east/7205408.stm
Dear Professor Farhi,
I am one of the avid readers of your comments and analyses on these pages, as well as elsewhere. Although your latest Comment sheds light on a number of important issues missing in the report by, for instance, Robert Tait (The Guardian, Tuesday, January 22, 2008), you do not make any reference to the 64 people who as of last Tuesday had been reported to have died as a result of the freezing temperatures. My criticism of your latest Comment has therefore bearing on your apparent disregard of the fact that whatever the true nature of the political events of the last days may have been (Mr Haddad-Adel scoring against Mr Ahamadinejad, or Mr Haddad-Adel gaining popularity amongst the electorate), some real people have lost their lives as a result of what I perceive to signify a cavalier attitude of the authorities in respect of the lives of humans (I must mention that "cavalier attitude" is an understatement, as it is not capable of describing a situation where even one person dies as a result of neglect, and infinitely less so when this neglect may turn out to have been a calculated one; in the latter case, "criminal act" would be the right wording). Is it correct to conclude that 64 people have been the unfortunate victims of a political game? And if so, how can Mr Haddad-Adel, or anyone else for that matter, gain popularity by not taking a timely action, so as to prevent innocent lives from being lost? I should be grateful if you would kindly clarify this matter. This is very significant in view of the fact that none of the sources that you cite (such as Etemad) has found it relevant to make mention of the dead. Do we, as a nation, care so little for human life?
Yours sincerely,
BF.
ps) The above-mentioned report by Robert Tait can be read here:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/international/story/0,,2244615,00.html
BF, your point is very well taken. There can be no quarrel with the fact that throughout the gas crisis in Iran various authorities have shown a cavalier attitude, as you suggest, or perhaps more accurately gross negligence and incompetence (even if out of ordinary weather conditions cause problems in the best managed of places). It is however not correct to imply that the Iranian papers or news agencies neglected the tragic consequences of this negligence.
They did write about it as the gas crisis was unfolding and in fact their reporting of tragic deaths is probably where Robert Tait got information about the number of people who lost their lives. They also reported on Ahmadinejad's attempt to blame Turkemenistan gas cut-off as the source of the problem and the vulnerabilities that cut-off revealed.
But let us not forget that Tait and other outside reporters did not write their pieces in order to report on the tragic deaths but because they wanted to report on the leader's rebuke of Ahmadinejad. That was the story that was interesting to them and their audience and the tragic deaths were the backdrop to the rebuke even if no evidence was given that the deaths, rather than ahmadinjad's presumed constitutional infringment, was what motivated the leader to issue his opinion (Jahan says that it was the disrespectful tone of the letter that led to action by someoa political competitor .... I read the letter carefully and could not see the evidence for disrespect but disrespect could be in the eyes of the beholder and my interpretation that in the letter Haddad saw an opportunity to enhance his own political clout can certainly be totally wrong but that's a different issue)
Etemad and other Iranians papers did not have to give the tragic backdrop when they covered the story of the rebuke because they had been reporting and critically commenting on the gas crisis and its consequences as it was happening. By the time Haddad Adel revealed his exchange with Ahmadinejad and the leader, there was a serious question about the timing and purpose precisely because the public revelation of the exchanges did not do anything to resolve or redress the serious issues at hand.
So the question of why Haddad Adel had to involve the leader and do so with such public fanfare became an issue precisely because people knew that the public display had nothing to do with redressing real problems. It was also important for Iranian reporters to question because their focus is not merely on the relationship of the leader and the president. They know that other actors and their motivations and moves are also important.
As such the speculation and commentary about the public display as being politically motivated (either to direct the finger of blame for the gas crisis towards ahmadinejad or to diplay Haddad's political clout for the purpose of becoming the list leader for Osulgarayan), I think, was a legitimate issue to ponder and forward precisely because it is a searing indictment of Iranian politicians who seem to be more interested in maintaining power, blaming others for collective failures, and making sure that they keep the upper hand in Iran's competitive political environment.
The fact that these politically motivated acts may not end up helping politicians in terms of popularity or better positioning in relation to rivals, does not mean that they will not try. In this case, the Iranian politicians don't seem much different from many politicians elsewhere.
Dear Professor Farhi,
Thank you for your prompt response. I apologize if I may have unwittingly suggested that *all* news organizations in Iran had neglected to give prominence to the loss of life in the incident at hand. Not following directly the news media in Iran (at least not systematically), I was/am not in a position to make such a sweeping statement; in my previous writing I was solely referring to those sources cited by you in your analysis, and to your Comment, that contained no mention of the fatalities. As for the reports by Robert Tait, generally I consider his reports from Iran rather superficial; they are not insightful --- The Guardian had one commentator who understood Iran well (not exclusively of course), namely Martin Woollacott, retired since some five years ago. You and your colleagues here may consider to invite him to contribute to Informed Comment: Golbal Affairs. Here is Woollacott’s profile for the interested reader:
http://commentisfree.guardian.co.uk/martin_woollacott/profile.html
I should like to take this opportunity and go somewhat deep into one aspect that comes out of both your original Comment and your response to my question. I offer my apologies at the outset for mentioning matters that may be widely known.
I am surprised, in fact I am shocked, that apparently in Iran solutions to emergency problems are sought subsequent to the occurrence of these problems (this statement may be too sweeping, however the events surrounding the present gas crisis compel me to believe that I may not be incorrect). Some years ago a friend who at the time was a member of one of the emergency committees in the United Kingdom told me that the government apparatus (the White Hall) has a number of offices which are tasked with thinking of emergency situations (of which some realistic and some utterly fantastic) and making contingency plans for the cases of the thought-of eventualities becoming reality. These plans, which are subsequently forwarded to experts for expert advice (they are also regularly updated in view of the continual scientific and technological progress), are budgeted for their financial costs and submitted to the treasury for approval. Approved contingency plans can be activated by a number of public figures without any reference to a government body, including the Cabinet and the offices of the Cabinet ministers. Naturally, the government of the day can complement actions in response to an emergency situation, however the activation and realization of contingency plans are entirely autonomous processes; as I have just mentioned, the costs of these contingency plans are fully approved long before their possible realizations. Considering that over the past several years the south and south-east of the UK, as well as the Midlands, have been regularly hit by floods, it is remarkable, but not surprising, that excluding some isolated tragic accidents, these floods have caused no fatalities. Similarly, when there have been outbreaks of bird flu and foot and mouth disease in the cattle, in less than 24 hours the affected farms have been identified and fully isolated. It is not difficult to imagine what the situation might have been if the emergency actions in these cases had to wait for the orders to pass through a long bureaucratic chain. Evidently, I am well aware of the fact (also indicated by you) that things may go awry in some cases (the hurricane Katrina in New Orleans may be a case in point).
Coming back to the case at hand, how is it possible that Iran apparently has not had an emergency plan for such eventuality as Turkmenistan not supplying gas to Iran. Why should resolving an emergency situation at all need the approval of the President, of the Parliament, or of the Supreme Jurisprudent? As I mentioned above, contingency plans for all emergency situations must be prepared (with their necessary financial costs estimated and approved) and capable of being activated by some public figures when the situation demands to do so.
Yours sincerely,
BF.
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