Saturday, September 1, 2007

Rollout to War with Iran: An Update

Update: Since I posted the original note on this topic Wednesday night, there have been several developments. Several more well-informed people have called to discuss it -- all of them with confirming information. No one called to say I was wrong.

The original cross-post that I put on DailyKos at 11:26 PM Wednesday night sank off the front page in the wee small hours of the morning, while the whole wide world was fast asleep. On Thursday, however, DailyKos diarist Scientician saw Juan Cole's plug on Informed Comment. He checked me out on the web and determined that I was a "respectable foreign affairs academic" (not always a compliment on DailyKos). That morning he nonetheless posted a diary that made it to the top of the recommended list, finally garnering 561 comments, many of them by people who appear not to be lunatics.

Then on Friday New Yorker contributor George Packer called. After our conversation he wrote about it on his blog Interesting Times:
If there were a threat level on the possibility of war with Iran, it might have just gone up to orange. Barnett Rubin, the highly respected Afghanistan expert at New York University, has written an account of a conversation with a friend who has connections to someone at a neoconservative institution in Washington.
His evaluation: "True? I don’t know. Plausible? Absolutely."

Later he put up a postscript:
Barnett Rubin just called me. His source spoke with a neocon think-tanker who corroborated the story of the propaganda campaign and had this to say about it: “I am a Republican. I am a conservative. But I’m not a raging lunatic. This is lunatic.”
Today, the first day of Magical September (hat-tip to openthread at DailyKos), Scott Horton of Harper's Magazine picked up the story on his No Comment blog, under the title, The New Rollout. Horton summarized my post and Packer's entry and then adds:

And no sooner does this appear in the blogosphere than we see what may be the first bit of ground-preparation for the rollout: Michael Ledeen’s new book, set for release right on schedule a week after Labor Day, and it’s called—get this–Iranian Time Bomb: The Mullah Zealots’ Quest for Destruction. What’s the point in being subtle when you’re trying to run herd on what Nietzsche called the “bovine masses?” Here’s the blurb:

“Michael A. Ledeen has written a knowing book about Iran’s ways. His is a book that lays bare the cruelties of the radical theocracy and its ambitions beyond its borders. After Ledeen’s book, the illusions about Iran should finally be put to rest. A smart and unsentimental work.”

Ledeen, the author of Machiavelli on Modern Leadership, among other classics, is a fluent Italian speaker with curious connections to the Italian state security and the yellowcake uranium caper. No doubt Michael thinks that somewhere out in the ethersphere, Niccolò is smiling. I think that Niccolò was smarter than that: he’s wincing.

Somewhere in the etheral blogosphere, diarist WilyFlorentine is preparing to post a few lessons:
The first method for estimating the intelligence of a ruler is to look at the men he has around him.

One who deceives will always find those who allow themselves to be deceived.

Men rise from one ambition to another: first, they seek to secure themselves against attack, and then they attack others.
And finally:
No enterprise is more likely to succeed than one concealed from the enemy until it is ripe for execution.
Since Ledeen is an expert on Machiavelli, the latter quote might argue that the rollout proves that war talk is a bluff designed to pressure Iran into agreeing to the demands of the European negotiators over nuclear enrichment. But brinkmanship works only when the other side has something to gain by conceding. That might be true if the administration's goal really was to prevent Iran from gaining full control of the nuclear fuel cycle. Rhetoric like President Bush's speech to the American Legion and Ledeen's book, however, only further convince Tehran that nothing short of forcible regime change will satisfy Washington.

Perhaps the war party will answer with another quotation from Chapter 17 of The Prince:
It is much more secure to be feared than to be loved.
In a speech delivered in Macchiavelli's native Florence, "The Danger of Being Hated," Scott Horton provided a fitting answer. He reminded his audience that the original formulation "Let them hate us, so long as they fear us," comes not from Macchiavelli, but from the insane Roman Emperor Caligula. Horton comments:

In chapter 17 of The Prince Machiavelli says that “it is much safer to be feared than loved”–a very shrewd rearrangement of Caligula’s statement. But he doesn’t stop there–he goes on immediately to say that the one of the worst mistakes a prince can ever make is to be hated; for in this way he converts himself to a target. He compounds the risks he personally and his subjects must face.

The balance that Machiavelli commends to us is this: don’t strive to be loved, but at all costs avoid being hated. A modern state need not flinch from being feared, but its position is strongest when it exhibits the values of virtue of which he writes. A state which is seen as virtuous, strong and decisive is best able to assure its security.

But there is one counsel of Macchiavelli's that even those who (unlike me) consider the Islamic Republic of Iran an irreconcilable enemy, ought to remember: that any injury done by the Prince should be so great that the victim is "unable to retaliate." And that is why the public and the press must at least ask the questions posed by Packer:
Does the Administration expect the Iranian regime to fall in the event of an attack? If yes, what will replace it? If no (and it will not), why would the Administration deliberately set about to strengthen the regime’s hold on power? What will the Administration do to protect highly vulnerable American lives and interests in Iraq, Afghanistan, and around the world against the Iranian reprisals that will follow? What if Iran strikes against Israel? What will be the strategy when the Iranian nuclear program, damaged but not destroyed, resumes? How will the Administration handle the international alarm and opprobrium that would be an attack’s inevitable fallout?
Writing on the futility of relying solely on force, Machiavelli counseled:
For this reason the best possible fortress is--not to be hated by the people, because, although you may hold the fortresses, yet they will not save you if the people hate you
That is why today, more even than when this Republic was founded, we owe “a decent respect to the opinions of mankind.” Today the U.S. is less loved, less respected, and after the debacle in Iraq, less feared but for its folly, than ever before. And that is the greatest threat to our security.

26 comments:

Archimedes39 said...

Speculation is rife across the blogosphere on impending military action against Iran, whether it takes the form of a "limited" missile attack against putative Iranian Revolutionary Guards "training camps" allegedly running through Iraqi Shi'ite militia members who then target US soldiers or vehicles (using, of course, Iranian-supplied EFPs), or something akin to "CONPLAN 8022", an intense guided bomb/cruise missile assault on Iranian nuclear processing facilities and related industrial complexes. In the majority of cases no one seems to take the position that such acts contravene international law and the UN Charter...the propriety of an unprovoked American attack is less the debating point than how all-encompassing it will be. Where have we come to that belligerent acts of aggression are now assumed to be one of several "tools" in the conduct of US foreign policy ? Even the prospective victims of this regression to brute militarism seem to accept such an option as a "rational" US option. Have people in America called for a debate on the precepts and imperatives enshrined in National Security Strategy-2002? Has the notion of "pre-emptive strike", without reference to even a UNSC resolution of approval, or indeed any other provision for international sanctioning, now form part of the national consensus? How much more of this "rogue state" behaviour will the international community indulge before the entire post-WWII construct governing conduct of and between states be declared null and void?

khughes1963 said...

All I can think of is the comment in Auntie Mame (the book, not the movie.) The comment is "Drive on fool, hell's only half full!" I thought that apropos when the administration started its quagmire in Iraq, and I think it even more apropos now. Never mind that we don't have the military strength to carry out such an attack (but we do have the hardware.) I doubt very much whether the American public will take kindly to the consequences.

Anonymous said...

I don't find that Daily Kos post plausible at all. I don't believe a serving officer would talk about operations with such specificity, and I don't believe that the writer would be able to recall a presumably non-recorded conversation so precisely.

I do find the idea that we may wake up one day very soon to find ourselves at war with Iran to be very plausible.

Anonymous said...

a couple of problems with the dailykos link / post

1. did the call originate from the Persian Gulf ? do you mean to tell me that serving military personnel can make calls like that back to the usa and reveal stuff like that ? wouldn't the military / nsa be intercepting / listening in on such calls ?

2. the identification of the marine / navy source should be very disturbing to that person - there cannot be very many personnel serving that fit that description - wouldn't the military be able to track that person down in about 10 minutes ?

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GO cheney / bush !!! Git Yer GD War The Funk On !!!!!!

profmarcus said...

more validation as if any is needed comes from today's london sunday times...
-----
"THE Pentagon has drawn up plans for massive airstrikes against 1,200 targets in Iran, designed to annihilate the Iranians’ military capability in three days, according to a national security expert.

Alexis Debat, director of terrorism and national security at the Nixon Center, said last week that US military planners were not preparing for “pinprick strikes” against Iran’s nuclear facilities. “They’re about taking out the entire Iranian military,” he said."
-----
lovely, eh...?

Anonymous said...

That Marine LSO doesn't care if she's caught. I assume she's on one of the Stateside carriers waiting for orders, so still can call or e-mail from her home. A brave woman.

Anonymous said...

"The original cross-post that I put on DailyKos at 11:26 PM Wednesday night sank off the front page in the wee small hours of the morning, while the whole wide world was fast asleep. On Thursday, however, DailyKos diarist Scientician saw Juan Cole's plug on Informed Comment. He checked me out on the web and determined that I was a "respectable foreign affairs academic" (not always a compliment on DailyKos). That morning he nonetheless posted a diary that made it to the top of the recommended list, finally garnering 561 comments, many of them by people who appear not to be lunatics."

Considering how hot you are for attention from the DKos community, in the future you might try being a little less insulting to the members when they actually do recognize you.

Just a tip.

-Night Owl

Anonymous said...

When is this supposed to happen? Ramadan is from mid-September to mid-October; are they going to wait until after that?

Homo Byzantinus said...

A few comments. Archimedes is a bit hard on the discussion group. I am sure all are horrified at the illegality. The issue is now the insanity.

Well, I am not sure the insanity matters to those people.

1) Increase in Islamic radicalization is good for them as they increase their hold on the rhetoric of security. This is the type of state they want to rule. One of cowed scared people.

2) Democrats will just tow the line when the first Iranian projectile is launched towards Israel (irrespective of whether it lands), or when Israel is "atacked" by its Northern neighbors and launches all out war on Lebanon and Syria. Democrats are already so weak in containing this president that it will not be hard to get them on the bandwagon.

3) The attack, if one is to take place, is going to be an all out massive air strike. No point to just attack the nukes. The Bushies fear that Iran is increasingly influential in the area. they do not fear the nukes. They will want to destroy its infrastructure as much as they had degraded Iraq's before 2003 so that a) Iran will have to concentrate on internal affairs and stop projecting influence and b) it will be open to more systematic atacks in the future, possibly with ground forces, when Iraq is done.

4) That Iraq will not be done and that an attack will not go smoothly is irrelevant to them. They act ideologically like Mao or Stalin. Reality is irrelevant. But do not assume that this makes them crazy or stupid. Like Stalin or Mao they are neither crazy nor stupid. It is just that the reality they care for is not yours and mine (the future victims of attacks on our metro systems and our economy-class planes) but theirs. And theirs is gated-community based, limo and private jet operated. So sit back and prepare to suffer as they play their video games with poor Iranian civilians.

Of course all this is hypothetical. But again let us not use reason as a factor in out analysis of coming events. Let us also not call them stupid as from the perspective of the accumulative pirate of world resources and wealth they are doing spectacularly well. Don't judge them from a US interests perspective. They do not give a toss about that.

Anonymous said...

How the attack will occur:

http://globalguerrillas.typepad.com/globalguerrillas/2006/04/collapsing_iran.html

Anonymous said...

Hope you are wrong for the world in general.

I think the EU should offer a solution to the problem of Iran,

Barnett R. Rubin said...

Thanks to one of the anonymous commentators for questioning the Maccabee diary. It does appear that this diarist is a fabulist, and I have removed all references. My apologies to anyone who was misled.
Also, in joking about the sanity of members of the DailyKos community, I do not exempt myself. I am a proud member of that community. These days, sanity is not always a good guide to reality.

Archimedes39 said...

Scott Horton had a revealing quote from an unnamed Brit diplomat who reckons that Gordon Brown is considering stepping up the withdrawal of Brit troops from southern Iraq in advance of US attacks against Iran, as the expected retaliation by the Iranians would be assaults against MNF-I soldiers in Iraq.
Looks as though Brown has well and truly "de-poodlised" himself from Junior and recognises the sheer folly of US going to war against Iran.

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