Monday, July 9, 2007

The Pessoptimist

My title comes from Emile Habiby's novel, The Secret Life of Saeed, the Pessoptimist. I turned to this book (which intentionally or not proves that Jews and Palestinians are secret twins) for help in answering one of the most puzzling questions people ask me: "Are you optimistic or pessimistic about Afghanistan?" In future posts I will also explore whether the glass is half full or half empty.

Far from helping me find an answer to this question, however, I found that the hero of this picaresque science fiction tale suffered if anything more intensely from the same doubts as I. As he explains, he inherited his anxiety from a long line of Pessoptimists:

That's the way our family is and why we bear the name Pessoptimist. For this word combines two qualities, pessimism and optimism, that have been blended perfectly in the character of all members of our family since our first divorced mother, the Cypriot. It is said that the first to so name us was Tamerlane, following the second massacre of Baghdad. This was when it was reported to him that my first ancestor, Abjar son of Abjar, mounted on his horse outside the city walls, had stared back at the tongues of flame and shouted, "After me, the deluge!"

Take me, for example. I don't differentiate between optimism and pessimism and am quite at a loss to which of the two characterizes me. When I awake each morning I thank the Lord he did not take my soul during the night. If harm befalls me during the day, I thank Him it was no worse. So which am I, a pessimist or an optimist?


But Saeed was lucky compared to me (as he would be the first to admit). He asked himself this question in the privacy of his own home.... Actually Saeed had neither privacy nor a home. But he did have a self, whose attitude toward the future he found difficult to define.

I, however, must answer this question at cocktail parties, on lecture stages, at conferences and seminars, not only in private (or, as we say, in "off-the-record" briefings) but to members of the press with cameras and microphones: "Professor Rubin, Are you optimistic or pessimistic about Afghanistan?"

First of all, I am not a professor. My job title is "senior research scientist." There are some doubts in the NYU Politics Department as to whether I am qualified to instruct PhD students. I understand these doubts as well as my unfortunate cousin Saeed would have. I do not profess anything. But I do try to be worthy of the title "senior research scientist."

I am as prone as anyone to make judgments based on superficial impressions, wishful thinking, or a bad mood. But I sought training as a social scientist to help overcome my mood swings, not use them as a guide to public life. As a result, I try to rely on information (limited as it is), data (faulty as they are), research results (contradictory and subject to revision as they may be) and unceasing questioning. I know that there is a Romantic school of thought that disdains such "reality-based" thinking (you know who I mean). But I remain a fallen classicist.

There are a few things we know about Afghanistan with a great deal of certainty, and there are a few pretty robust research results. We know that Afghanistan is the poorest country in the world outside of sub-Saharan Africa and that it has been at war for almost 30 years. We know that the great and also some rather mediocre powers have spent billions and billions of dollars sending weapons to anyone in the country who asked for them -- and some others as well. Actually, the value of these weapons has exceeded several multiples of Afghanistan's economy. Perhaps that's why some people are optimistic about Afghanistan -- it has attracted a lot of attention.

I say, "we know" these things, but I feel a Saeedian puzzlement. Who are "we?" Apparently many people - even people wielding history's most deadly weapons and budgets of billions of dollars -- have not bothered to acquaint themselves with these facts. Recently I attended an off-the-record meeting outside of Washington. At this meeting officials from many parts of the US government (but not the Department of Agriculture) met to discuss counter-narcotics policy in Afghanistan. I learned many things. I learned that Afghan farmers are too secure and are making too much money. That is why it is necessary to eradicate their crops. But no one at this meeting mentioned that 40 percent of the families in rural Afghanistan do not have enough food to eat, though they can easily find someone with an automatic weapon to "protect" them. I suggested that maybe Afghan farmers needed more rather than less security, but no one wants to reward bad behavior like growing opium poppies.

It's pretty clear that very poor countries with a lot of weapons, high unemployment, and insurgents and terrorists based in neighboring countries and remote, mountainous regions have, shall we way, a "high risk" for armed conflict. By the way, I also read a few history books. They disagree about a lot of things. But it does seem that foreign military interventions in Afghanistan have a poor track record.

So am I pessimistic? Look at the facts. What are the chances that Afghanistan will become a stable, prosperous, democratic, gender-sensitive country? But as I sometimes say, being pessimistic about Afghanistan is not an intellectual challenge. I didn't become a "senior research scientist" just to assert the obvious. Perhaps this is why I am no longer a professor.

In the past several years I have become a practicing pessoptimist, not just a theoretician. In October 2001 I stated on television that, even though the US and other countries should help Afghanistan rebuild, there was no chance that the country could become a stable democracy in two years. Then I went to Bonn as part of the UN team, and at the end we produced an agreement saying that Afghanistan should become a stable (and gender-sensitive!) Islamic democracy in.... two and a half years.

I guess the Bonn Agreement has provided a lot of the water to fill up that glass (more on how thirsty Afghanistan is in later posts). I guess I should boast about it like the other things I have been involved in -- the Afghan Constitution, the Afghanistan National Development Strategy, the Afghanistan Compact.... Of course people call me an "adviser," meaning someone who gives advice. They never call themselves "advisees," meaning someone who takes advice. There is a reason for this, but it is a professional secret. It is known only to other "senior research scientists."

I even did something stranger. I invested my own money in Afghanistan. With some Afghan and French investors I started Gulestan Ltd., to manufacture essential oils for the fragrance and personal care industries. It's easy to register a business with the Afghanistan Investment Support Agency, but just try to operate it once you leave the AISA compound! My business is just like opium, but the flowers are different. Also it's legal. And Afghanistan is not really set up for legal businesses. According to the World Bank Investment Climate Survey, Afghanistan is, more or less, the worst place in the world to invest. Maybe I will start a new fund: Pessoptimist Venture Capital.

I know a senior diplomat who says that there should be a time limit for work on Afghanistan, because it warps your mind. But this same person, who supposedly retired several years ago, has just signed up for another year in Kabul. Those of us who have been around for a while get used to the new faces telling us how they will fix everything. Their optimism will soon turn to pessimism, and then they will leave.

Except for a few of us. Just like Saeed, every morning we thank the Lord that he did not destroy Afghanistan during the night. And if harm befalls Afghanistan during the day, we thank the Lord it was not worse.

And then we get to work.

As Saeed's mother used to say, "And why should we not praise God?"

83 comments:

Anonymous said...

Very interesting post - I'm excited that you've joined the blogging world. May I make a suggestion that your blog have 'tags' with your names? So if a person wants to find all blog posts by you, then they just have to click on your name...

Anonymous said...

I appreciate your insight and compassion. So much so that I am willing to accept the title, "advisee."

Unknown said...

Sir, An idea springs to mind- why cant a fund be set up to purchase the opium being grown in Afghanistan from the farmers? It could then be destroyed in an orderly fashion in country, without waiting for it to be refined and trafficked, and the farmers would have a regulated source of income until the development programs kick in properly

Unknown said...

Jonathan,some people might object to that idea: the opium smugglers, the heroin manufacturers, the heroin smugglers, the great chain of buyers and distributors – all the way down the line to the Heroin Consumers of America. And of course, all the government and law enforcement officials who are handsomely rewarded for their cooperation.

Unknown said...

I forgot to congratulate the Pessoptimist for a terrific (is that the right word?) blog!

adelita said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
adelita said...

what i wrote in previous post, minus typos.

i greatly appreciate your ideas, and even more, the grace and precision with which you present them.
i'd be honored to join an advisee's society.

Anonymous said...

I think countries should buy the opium and use it for their own legal health needs, thereby investing in the future of the Afghanistan and taking it off the streets elsewhere. They would save an awful lot of money!!

Anonymous said...

Agree with anonymous. Afghanistan has a thriving opium, hash, pot industry that could bring in a ton of development money if it were properly regulated. If the West would get over its puritanical resistance to these products, we could help rebuild Afghanistan.

Anonymous said...

"Those of us who have been around for a while get used to the new faces telling us how they will fix everything. Their optimism will soon turn to pessimism, and then they will leave."

Hmmm, as a relatively fresh face (18 months in Afghanistan) I appreciate the humour and the pathos in your comment. I've never had any idea how to fix everything. But I did arrive with a store of optimism which is leaking slowly and I think this "pessoptimism" may be just the answer I was looking for.

I'm based in Ghor and am gathering up any research I can found done in this province - any suggestions would be gratefully received.

Thanks

markdel said...

reJuly 11, 2007 9:32 AM
You are right of course but it would put the legal Australia opium growns out of business, would not provide an excuse to build roads to protect future oil piplines and would be much cheaper than tanks, guns and troops. It will never happen.

frank said...

For optimism, read Mitchner's Iberia. He writes from the perspective of his second visit to Spain, in the 60's, when that country was on the cusp of an economic miracle, and Franco was on the way out. He contrasts it to Spain in the early 40's, a country that had known nothing but violence, poverty and sustained decline for hundreds of years.

It's uplifting. Of course Afghanistan is not Spain, but still-- things get better. The world, on the whole is more prosperous and less violent than it's been at any point.

Of course Bonn was absurd. Every development and civil society project in Afghanistan is absurd for the same reasons: they expect measurable improvement in an unrealistic timeframe.

Also, PROFESSOR Barnett: brilliant post.

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