tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2275824557999662261.post7285726658817620393..comments2024-03-27T02:20:19.265-04:00Comments on Informed Comment: Global Affairs: Afghanistan and the Region: The View from HeratJuan Colehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05794922740548563607noreply@blogger.comBlogger5125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2275824557999662261.post-86323293608940630172011-07-27T07:33:33.497-04:002011-07-27T07:33:33.497-04:00Afghanistan is perhaps one of the most pressing is...Afghanistan is perhaps one of the most pressing issues in contemporary humanitarian and foreign affairs. In his Inaugural address, President Obama committed to "forge a hard-earned peace in Afghanistan." 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Breaking news and ar...World news about Afghanistan. Breaking news and archival information about its people, politics and economy from The New York Times.<BR/><A HREF="http://www.musiktexte32.com/songtexte/t/tarkan/index.php" REL="nofollow">http://www.musiktexte32.com/songtexte/t/tarkan/index.php</A>Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2275824557999662261.post-15065525765535773572007-10-22T05:33:00.000-04:002007-10-22T05:33:00.000-04:00Iran has had plenty of time to prepare for a poten...Iran has had plenty of time to prepare for a potential US strike. At the moment, they've postured themselves into a stance of deterrence, as Br. Gen. Chaharbaghi's comments so colorfully illustrate. If and when hostilities do break out, Iran's defense could consist of a range of response options based on the scope of a US attack. But there could just as well be a preset, determinable trigger point that makes for an all-out ballistic and cruise missile burst. Perceived missile survivability from attack is key to the favored response strategy chosen by the Iranians. That survivability could be enhanced by decoys, such as full-scale Shahab mockups, as seen in recent Tehran military day parades.<BR/><BR/>Gulf strike options include the use of surface-to surface and anti-ship missiles, as well as elite seaborne assault and submarine attack. Depending on Iranian planning and the scope of a US attack, it is assumed that the Iranians would attempt to block the straight of Hormuz and deny the use of the Persian Gulf for naval shipping. The longer that straight remains impassable, or the longer the Gulf remains too dangerous to navigate, the better the chances of an internationally brokered ceasefire, with terms advantageous to Iran. Gulf states such as Bahrain, Kuwait and Qatar, which accommodate US military facilities may also be subject to attack. One of the lessons of the 2nd Lebanon War was the successful use of rocket artillery in exacting a regional condition of economic siege, as demonstrated in northern Israel and the port city of Haifa. This type of strategy may also find application in the regional context of a Gulf war.<BR/><BR/>The Persian Gulf actually affords a strike advantage in terms of its geographic containment. Iran has demonstrated abilities at tracking USN naval movements. Current USN deployment in the Gulf offers, perhaps, an unprecedented array of targets for a strike force. There has been a long standing debate in US military circles as to the survivability of the aircraft carrier, especially under such conditions of restricted maneuver. Should the carriers suffer in-operability from enemy fire, it could conceivably alter the perceived balance of power in the region, and possibly even change the nature of naval warfare in general. <BR/><BR/>By comparison to its Gulf strike options, Iranian responses in the Iraq and Afghanistan theater are more predictable, at least at the operational level. In these theaters, Iran is provided with a range of tactical options, which include Pasdaran direction and training of local militias, unrestrained supply and use of sophisticated ATGM's and MANPADS, and the expanded use of rocket and large caliber mortar artillery. This would offer a host of potential complications to static US military assets such as the Green Zone, and to coalition operations as a whole. The Iraq and Afghan theaters of conflict should be considered Iran's long term defense strategy, extending beyond the limited resources of its Gulf strike and air defense options. This strategy could also be applied as an exclusive response to a more limited US strike.<BR/><BR/>Naturally, the Iranians have studied in detail US offensive air operations of the two Gulf Wars and the Serbian War, as well as Israeli air combat during the 2nd Lebanon War. The First Gulf War was even more disastrous for the Iraqi Air Force (IrAF) than the Iran-Iraq War, where the Islamic Republic of Iran Air Force (IRIAF) performed remarkably well, given the lack of US factory support for its aircraft. The Serbian War, 2nd Gulf War and 2nd Lebanon War found no real opposition to US and Israeli warplanes and cruise missiles. Contrary to this trend, Iranian defenses might possibly constitute some level of short term challenge to US (or Israeli) offensive air operations. Notable is the purchase by Iran from Russia of the new Tor M1 missile systems, intended as a defense against cruise missiles and strike aircraft. Of special interest, perhaps, is the refurbishment of the remaining F-14A Tomcat fleet. <BR/><BR/>Russia is a wild card. Encounters involving minor powers are always an opportunity to test new weapons systems. The Soviets tested warplanes such as the MiG-25RB during the Iran-Iraq War, likewise the French with their Super 530 missile. And the Russians reportedly field tested their latest ATGM against the US M1 tank during the first week of OIF. The Russians could conceivably provide a limited deployment of their newest weapons systems, in order to test their effectiveness against USN and even USAF assets. <BR/><BR/>This commentary offers only a brief, selective discussion, and does not represent a detailed and complete analysis of Iran's military potential in response to a US attack.Mark Pyruzhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00595161519097596575noreply@blogger.com